Sep 9, 2026
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Read Article Pirates vs. White Sox prediction: Why White Sox are favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [9/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 53.1% win probability for the White Sox at Rate Field.
The Chicago White Sox will square off with the Pittsburgh Pirates, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Rate Field on Wednesday, commencing at 7:40 PM ET.
The White Sox will have Davis Martin (9-6, 4.13 ERA) as their starting pitcher, pitting him against Lake Bachar (1-3, 3.59 ERA) for the Pirates.
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the White Sox a slight edge with a 53.1% win probability over the Pirates.
This article offers a complete Pirates vs. White Sox prediction, including best bets and picks.
Pirates vs. White Sox prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Wednesday's MLB matchup between the Pirates and White Sox, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the White Sox a 53.1% chance of beating the Pirates.
According to our model, the Pirates (+1.5) have a 63.9% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 52.9% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Pirates +1.5 (-167) / White Sox -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: Pirates +130, White Sox -125
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (-108/+106)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Pirates +1.5 @ 63¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Pirates @ +130 via BetRivers
- Total: Over 8.5 @ 52¢ via Polymarket
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Pirates to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Wednesday's MLB game between the White Sox and Pirates at Rate Field is scheduled to start at 7:40 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago White Sox
- Date: Wednesday, September 9, 2026
- Time: 7:40 PM ET/4:40PM PT
- Venue: Rate Field
Conclusion
We predict the White Sox, with a 53.1% win probability, will likely beat the Pirates in Wednesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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