Sep 12, 2026
Rockies vs. Tigers prediction: Detroit favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [9/12/2026]
Read Article Pirates vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [9/12/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 52.3% win probability for the Cubs at Wrigley Field.
The Chicago Cubs will face the Pittsburgh Pirates, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Wrigley Field on Saturday, starting at 2:20 PM ET.
The Cubs will send Clay Holmes (6-7, 2.83 ERA) to the mound, pitting him against Paul Skenes (10-11, 3.83 ERA) for the Pirates.
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Cubs a slight edge with a 52.3% win probability over the Pirates.
This article offers a complete Pirates vs. Cubs prediction, including best bets and picks.
For more, dive into Paul Skenes' projected pitching stats.
Pirates vs. Cubs prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's MLB matchup between the Pirates and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Cubs a 52.3% chance of defeating the Pirates. According to our model, the Pirates (+1.5) have a 63.2% chance of covering the run line, while the 9.5-run over/under has a 56.8% chance of staying under.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Pirates +1.5 (-178) / Cubs -1.5 (+165)
- Moneyline: Pirates +115, Cubs -117
- Total: Over/Under 9.5 (+117/-122)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Pirates +1.5 @ 64¢ via Polymarket
- Moneyline: Pirates @ 47¢ via Novig
- Total: Under 9.5 @ 55¢ via Polymarket
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 9.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Saturday's MLB matchup between the Cubs and Pirates at Wrigley Field is scheduled to start at 2:20 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
- Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026
- Time: 2:20 PM ET/11:20AM PT
- Venue: Wrigley Field
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 52.3% win probability, will likely beat the Pirates in Saturday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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