Phillies vs. Braves prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [9/13/2026]

The Atlanta Braves will face the Philadelphia Phillies in MLB action at Truist Park on Sunday, starting at 1:35 PM ET.

Grant Holmes (9-5, 3.46 ERA) will start on the mound for the Braves, up against Andrew Painter (3-9, 5.71 ERA) for the Phillies.

Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Braves as the most likely winner in this Phillies vs. Braves prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Phillies vs. Braves prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLB game between the Phillies and Braves, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Braves a 55.4% chance of beating the Phillies. According to our model, the Phillies (+1.5) have a 60.5% chance of covering the run line, while the 9.5-run over/under has a 54.6% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Phillies +1.5 (-175) / Braves -1.5 (+167)
• Moneyline: Phillies +117, Braves -120
• Total: Over/Under 9.5 (+108/-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Braves -1.5 @ 37¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Braves @ 55¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 9.5 @ 48¢ via Novig

According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Sunday's MLB matchup between the Braves and Phillies at Truist Park is scheduled to begin at 1:35 PM ET.

• Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
• Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
• Time: 1:35 PM ET/10:35AM PT
• Venue: Truist Park

Conclusion

We predict the Braves, with a 55.4% win probability, will likely beat the Phillies in Sunday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.