Sep 13, 2026
Pirates vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [9/13/2026]
Read Article Phillies vs. Braves prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [9/13/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 54.9% win probability for the Braves at Truist Park.
The Atlanta Braves will square off with the Philadelphia Phillies, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Truist Park on Sunday, starting at 1:35 PM ET.
The Braves will have Grant Holmes (9-5, 3.46 ERA) as their starting pitcher, pitting him against Andrew Painter (3-9, 5.71 ERA) for the Phillies.
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Braves a slight edge with a 54.9% win probability over the Phillies.
This article offers a complete Phillies vs. Braves prediction, including best bets and picks.
Phillies vs. Braves prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLB matchup between the Phillies and Braves, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Braves a 54.9% chance of defeating the Phillies. According to our model, the Phillies (+1.5) have a 61.5% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of nine runs has a 55.5% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Phillies +1.5 (-174) / Braves -1.5 (+170)
- Moneyline: Phillies +117, Braves -122
- Total: Over/Under 9 (+100/-114)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Braves -1.5 @ 37¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Braves @ 55¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 9 @ +100 via BetMGM
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Sunday's MLB game between the Braves and Phillies at Truist Park is scheduled to start at 1:35 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
- Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
- Time: 1:35 PM ET/10:35AM PT
- Venue: Truist Park
Conclusion
We predict the Braves, with a 54.9% win probability, will likely beat the Phillies in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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