Sep 5, 2026
Angels vs. Pirates prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [9/5/2026]
Read Article Yankees vs. Padres prediction: San Diego favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [9/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Add Dimers on Google 
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 51.5% win probability for the Padres at Petco Park.
The San Diego Padres and New York Yankees will lock horns in MLB action at Petco Park on Saturday, starting at 7:15 PM ET.
Robbie Ray (11-7, 3.14 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Padres, while the Yankees have opted for Carlos Rodón (4-3, 3.20 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Padres a slight edge with a 51.5% win probability over the Yankees.
This article offers a complete Yankees vs. Padres prediction, including best bets and picks.
Yankees vs. Padres prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's MLB matchup between the Yankees and Padres, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Padres a 51.5% chance of defeating the Yankees.
According to our model, the Padres (+1.5) have a 63.8% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 54.9% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+170) / Padres +1.5 (-178)
- Moneyline: Yankees +102, Padres -104
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-108/+104)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Padres +1.5 @ 64¢ via Polymarket
- Moneyline: Padres @ 51¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 7.5 @ 52¢ via Novig
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Saturday's MLB action between the Padres and Yankees at Petco Park is scheduled to commence at 7:15 PM ET.
- Who: New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres
- Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026
- Time: 7:15 PM ET/4:15PM PT
- Venue: Petco Park
Conclusion
We predict the Padres, with a 51.5% win probability, will likely beat the Yankees in Saturday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Lock in for all of NFL & College Football. Every plan unlocks every model, tool and insight, only the billing term changes.
MOST FLEXIBLE
Monthly billed monthly
$29.99
Month to month Pay as you go RECOMMENDED
6 Months one payment
$99.99 $149.99
6 months $16.67 per month Save $79.95 · 44% Early bird price BEST VALUE
Annual first year
$149.99 $199.99
12 months $12.50 per month Save $209.89 · 58% Early bird price Every plan includes
Full site access
iOS & Android app
AI bet assistant
Unlimited picks & predictions
Unlimited best bets & props
Unlimited player projections
Private Discord community
Cancel or pause anytime
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
Advertiser disclosure
