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Read Article Yankees vs. Mets prediction: Yankees favored to win Friday's Subway Series matchup [5/15/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get New York Yankees vs New York Mets predictions for MLB Friday.
The New York Mets will take on the New York Yankees, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Citi Field on Friday, beginning at 7:15 PM ET.
Clay Holmes (4-3, 1.86 ERA) will start on the mound for the Mets, pitting him against Cam Schlittler (5-1, 1.35 ERA) for the Yankees.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Yankees a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Mets.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's Yankees vs. Mets matchup, including best bets and picks.
Yankees vs. Mets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's MLB matchup between the Yankees and Mets, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Yankees a 54% chance of defeating the Mets.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 60% chance of covering the run line, while the 7-run over/under has a 55% chance of going over.
Yankees vs. Mets odds [5/15/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Yankees | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+125) | +1.5 (-146) |
| Moneyline | -145 | +130 |
| Total | o7 (-102) | u7 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Yankees vs. Mets picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets +1.5 | -146 |
| Moneyline | Mets | +130 |
| Total | Over 7 | -102 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Yankees vs. Mets game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Yankees at Citi Field is scheduled to commence at 7:15 PM ET.
- Who: New York Yankees vs. New York Mets
- Date: Friday, May 15, 2026
- Time: 7:15 PM ET/4:15PM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Yankees, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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