Mets vs. Rays prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [9/2/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's MLB game between the Mets and Rays, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Rays a 56.1% chance of defeating the Mets.

According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 61.1% chance of covering the run line, while the 7.5-run over/under has a 56.5% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Mets +1.5 (-144) / Rays -1.5 (+138)
• Moneyline: Mets +153, Rays -156

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Mets +1.5 @ -144 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Mets @ +153 via Novig
• Total: Over 7.5 @ -120 via Novig

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Wednesday's MLB game between the Rays and Mets at Tropicana Field is scheduled to commence at 6:40 PM ET.

• Who: New York Mets vs. Tampa Bay Rays
• Date: Wednesday, September 2, 2026
• Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
• Venue: Tropicana Field

Conclusion

We predict the Rays, with a 56.1% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Wednesday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.