Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Dinger Tuesday has +800 odds [9/15/2026]

• Fernando Tatis (Padres): 23.1% probability
• Manny Machado (Padres): 21.0%
• Aaron Judge (Yankees): 20.6%
• Cal Raleigh (Mariners): 19.3%
• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): 18.9%
• Jackson Merrill (Padres): 18.8%
• Kyle Tucker (Dodgers): 18.6%
• Yordan Alvarez (Astros): 18.1%
• Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers): 17.9%
• Max Muncy (Dodgers): 17.6%

Our analysis shows Tatis leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.1% chance to go yard, followed by Manny Machado (21.0%) and Aaron Judge (20.6%).

Cal Raleigh and Kyle Schwarber are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Tuesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Tuesday's home run picks [9/15/2026]

Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, identifies today’s highest-rated home run prop.

Francisco Alvarez (Mets) to hit a home run

• Probability: 16.1%
• Odds: +800
• Edge: 5.0%
• Pitching matchup: Shane Baz
• More game projections: Orioles vs. Mets prediction (7:10 PM EDT)

Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, New York slugger Francisco Alvarez rates as a value play at +800 with Fanatics, showing a 5.0% edge.

Against Orioles starter Shane Baz, the data supports Alvarez as one of Tuesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props — and a natural fit for Dinger Tuesday, a night built around finding value in long-ball matchups.

Originally sparked by sportsbook offers rewarding bonus bets for each home run hit by a selected player, Dinger Tuesday has evolved into a weekly tradition for MLB bettors — where clear, model-driven insights like these can help separate signal from noise.

Pro users have access to a total of 22 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For September 15, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado and Aaron Judge projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Francisco Alvarez who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 5.0% edge at +800 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Tuesday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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