Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +700 pick for Thursday [9/3/2026]

• Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers): 25.3% probability
• Kyle Tucker (Dodgers): 18.8%
• Pete Alonso (Orioles): 18.6%
• Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers): 17.8%
• Junior Caminero (Rays): 17.8%
• Yordan Alvarez (Astros): 17.4%
• Cal Raleigh (Mariners): 17.1%
• Wilyer Abreu (Red Sox): 16.1%
• Corey Seager (Rangers): 15.3%
• Jake Burger (Rangers): 15.3%

Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 25.3% chance to go yard, followed by Kyle Tucker (18.8%) and Pete Alonso (18.6%).

Teoscar Hernández and Junior Caminero are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Thursday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Thursday's home run picks [9/3/2026]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and evaluating key variables like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.

Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) to hit a home run

• Probability: 18.8%
• Odds: +700
• Edge: 6.3%
• Pitching matchup: Quinn Mathews
• More game projections: Cardinals vs. Dodgers prediction (10:10 PM EDT)

Ranked among today’s top three home run projections, Los Angeles slugger Kyle Tucker rates as a value play at +700 with Fanatics, showing a 6.3% edge.

With Quinn Mathews on the mound for the Cardinals, the data supports Tucker as one of Thursday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to a total of nine home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For September 3, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker and Pete Alonso projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. Tucker in particular emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 6.3% edge at +700 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Thursday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.