Home run predictions for Wednesday include Pete Alonso, Christian Encarnacion-Strand [9/2/2026]

• Pete Alonso (Orioles): 26.4% probability
• Samuel Basallo (Orioles): 21.9%
• Gunnar Henderson (Orioles): 20.7%
• Yordan Alvarez (Astros): 20.3%
• Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Orioles): 20.3%
• Fernando Tatis (Padres): 20.2%
• Coby Mayo (Orioles): 19.2%
• Colton Cowser (Orioles): 18.7%
• Manny Machado (Padres): 18.4%
• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): 17.9%

Our analysis shows Alonso leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 26.4% chance to go deep, followed by Samuel Basallo (21.9%) and Gunnar Henderson (20.7%).

Yordan Alvarez and Christian Encarnacion-Strand are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Wednesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Wednesday's home run picks [9/2/2026]

Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, surfaces today’s highest-rated home run prop.

Josh Naylor (Mariners) to hit a home run

• Probability: 11.4%
• Odds: +1200
• Edge: 3.7%
• Pitching matchup: Patrick Sandoval
• More game projections: Mariners vs. Red Sox prediction (4:10 PM EDT)

Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Seattle slugger Josh Naylor rates as a value play at +1200 with Fanatics, showing a 3.7% edge.

Against Red Sox starter Patrick Sandoval, the data supports Naylor as one of Wednesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to a total of 18 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For September 2, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Pete Alonso, Samuel Basallo and Gunnar Henderson projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Josh Naylor who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.7% edge at +1200 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Wednesday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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