Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +461 pick for Dinger Tuesday [9/1/2026]

• Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers): 27.0% probability
• Pete Alonso (Orioles): 26.8%
• Eugenio Suárez (Reds): 24.1%
• Samuel Basallo (Orioles): 23.0%
• Gunnar Henderson (Orioles): 21.0%
• Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Orioles): 20.6%
• Kyle Tucker (Dodgers): 20.4%
• Coby Mayo (Orioles): 19.8%
• Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers): 19.3%
• Max Muncy (Dodgers): 19.2%

Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 27.0% chance to go deep, followed by Pete Alonso (26.8%) and Eugenio Suárez (24.1%).

Samuel Basallo and Gunnar Henderson are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Tuesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Tuesday's home run picks [9/1/2026]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and weighing key factors like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.

Eugenio Suárez (Reds) to hit a home run

• Probability: 24.1%
• Odds: +461
• Edge: 6.3%
• Pitching matchup: Randy Vásquez
• More game projections: Padres vs. Reds prediction (6:40 PM EDT)

Ranked among today’s top three home run projections, Cincinnati slugger Eugenio Suárez rates as a value play at +461 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 6.3% edge.

With Randy Vásquez on the mound for the Padres, the data supports Suárez as one of Tuesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props — and a natural fit for Dinger Tuesday, a night built around finding value in long-ball matchups.

Originally sparked by sportsbook offers rewarding bonus bets for each home run hit by a selected player, Dinger Tuesday has evolved into a weekly tradition for MLB bettors — where clear, model-driven insights like these can help separate signal from noise.

Pro users have access to a total of 23 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For September 1, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Pete Alonso and Eugenio Suárez projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. Suárez in particular emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 6.3% edge at +461 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Tuesday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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