Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +1050 pick for Thursday [8/27/2026]

• Ben Rice (Yankees): 17.2% probability
• Vladimir Guerrero (Blue Jays): 16.5%
• Jazz Chisholm (Yankees): 16.4%
• Yordan Alvarez (Astros): 16.0%
• Spencer Jones (Yankees): 15.8%
• Trent Grisham (Yankees): 15.3%
• Kazuma Okamoto (Blue Jays): 14.4%
• Austin Wells (Yankees): 14.4%
• Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers): 14.3%
• George Springer (Blue Jays): 14.0%

Our analysis shows Rice leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 17.2% chance to go deep, followed by Vladimir Guerrero (16.5%) and Jazz Chisholm (16.4%).

Yordan Alvarez and Spencer Jones are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Thursday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Thursday's home run picks [8/27/2026]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and assessing key factors like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.

Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) to hit a home run

• Probability: 10.9%
• Odds: +1050
• Edge: 2.2%
• Pitching matchup: Chris Sale
• More game projections: Dodgers vs. Braves prediction (7:15 PM EDT)

Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Los Angeles slugger Kyle Tucker rates as a value play at +1050 with Fanatics, showing a 2.2% edge.

Set to face Chris Sale in tonight's Dodgers-Braves matchup, the data supports Tucker as one of Thursday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For August 27, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Ben Rice, Vladimir Guerrero and Jazz Chisholm projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Kyle Tucker who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 2.2% edge at +1050 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Thursday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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