Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Friday has +1050 odds [8/21/2026]

• Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers): 24.3% probability
• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): 22.2%
• Jo Adell (Guardians): 20.2%
• Byron Buxton (Twins): 20.0%
• Yordan Alvarez (Astros): 19.2%
• Fernando Tatis (Padres): 18.7%
• Kyle Tucker (Dodgers): 18.0%
• Eugenio Suárez (Reds): 18.0%
• Junior Caminero (Rays): 17.8%
• Cal Raleigh (Mariners): 17.6%

Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 24.3% chance to go yard, followed by Kyle Schwarber (22.2%) and Jo Adell (20.2%).

Byron Buxton and Yordan Alvarez are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Friday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Friday's home run picks [8/21/2026]

Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, highlights today’s highest-rated home run prop.

Jose Altuve (Astros) to hit a home run

• Probability: 12.7%
• Odds: +1050
• Edge: 4.0%
• Pitching matchup: J.T. Ginn
• More game projections: Athletics vs. Astros prediction (8:10 PM EDT)

Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Houston slugger Jose Altuve rates as a value play at +1050 with Fanatics, showing a 4.0% edge.

Set to face J.T. Ginn in tonight's Athletics-Astros matchup, the data supports Altuve as one of Friday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to a total of 13 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For August 21, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber and Jo Adell projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Jose Altuve who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 4.0% edge at +1050 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Friday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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