Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +423 pick for Monday [8/17/2026]

Our MLB home run predictions for Monday, August 17, 2026, feature Shohei Ohtani as the top projected hitter, according to Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.

Monday's HR projections pull from our proprietary home run predictions, built to highlight the top home run bets today.

Home run predictions for August 17, 2026

See which hitters join Ohtani on today’s list — including one value pick the model rates as value at +423.

• Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers): 30.0% probability
• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): 22.7%
• Kyle Tucker (Dodgers): 22.6%
• Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers): 21.9%
• Max Muncy (Dodgers): 21.2%
• Andy Pages (Dodgers): 19.6%
• Byron Buxton (Twins): 18.6%
• Junior Caminero (Rays): 17.8%
• Freddie Freeman (Dodgers): 17.4%
• Mookie Betts (Dodgers): 17.3%

Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 30.0% chance to go deep, followed by Kyle Schwarber (22.7%) and Kyle Tucker (22.6%).

Teoscar Hernández and Max Muncy are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Monday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Monday's home run picks [8/17/2026]

Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, identifies today’s highest-rated home run prop.

Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) to hit a home run

• Probability: 22.6%
• Odds: +423
• Edge: 3.5%
• Pitching matchup: Tomoyuki Sugano
• More game projections: Dodgers vs. Rockies prediction (8:40 PM EDT)

Ranked among today’s top three home run projections, Los Angeles slugger Kyle Tucker rates as a value play at +423 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 3.5% edge.

Set to face Tomoyuki Sugano in tonight's Dodgers-Rockies matchup, the data supports Tucker as one of Monday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For August 17, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Tucker projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. Tucker in particular emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.5% edge at +423 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Monday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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