Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Sunday has +850 odds [8/16/2026]

Our MLB home run predictions for Sunday, August 16, 2026, feature Shohei Ohtani as the top projected hitter, per Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.

Sunday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, built to highlight the top slugging candidates today.

Home run predictions for August 16, 2026

See which hitters join Ohtani on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +850.

• Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers): 22.6% probability
• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): 20.0%
• Eugenio Suárez (Reds): 20.0%
• Byron Buxton (Twins): 19.8%
• Michael Busch (Cubs): 18.5%
• Junior Caminero (Rays): 17.7%
• Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): 17.6%
• Kyle Tucker (Dodgers): 17.3%
• Jake Burger (Rangers): 17.3%
• Mike Trout (Angels): 17.2%

Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 22.6% chance to go yard, followed by Kyle Schwarber (20.0%) and Eugenio Suárez (20.0%).

Byron Buxton and Michael Busch are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Sunday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Sunday's home run picks [8/16/2026]

Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, reveals today’s highest-rated home run prop.

Carson Kelly (Cubs) to hit a home run

• Probability: 13.8%
• Odds: +850
• Edge: 3.3%
• Pitching matchup: Hunter Dobbins
• More game projections: Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction (3:15 PM EDT)

Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Chicago slugger Carson Kelly rates as a value play at +850 with Fanatics, showing a 3.3% edge.

With Hunter Dobbins on the mound for the Cardinals, the data supports Kelly as one of Sunday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to a total of 13 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For August 16, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber and Eugenio Suárez projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Carson Kelly who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.3% edge at +850 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Sunday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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