MLB picks today: Monday's MLB best bets include Marlins vs. Diamondbacks play [9/14/2026]

Marlins vs. Diamondbacks Over 8.5 runs (+113)

• Edge: 6.4%
• Probability: 53.3%
• Matchup: Marlins vs. Diamondbacks (9:40PM ET)

Our model has identified value on Over 8.5 runs in Marlins vs. Diamondbacks at +113 odds. A 53.3% probability produces an edge of 6.4%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Padres vs. Rockies Over 11 runs (+100)

• Edge: 5.4%
• Probability: 55.4%
• Matchup: Padres vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET)

Padres vs. Rockies over 11 runs carries a 5.4% edge and a probability of 55.4% at +100 odds, according to our model.

Yankees vs. Twins Over 8.5 runs (+100)

• Edge: 5.2%
• Probability: 55.2%
• Matchup: Yankees vs. Twins (7:40PM ET)

Yankees vs. Twins Over 8.5 runs at +100 odds shows a 5.2% edge, supported by a 55.2% probability in simulations.

White Sox vs. Guardians over 7 runs (+100)

• Edge: 5.2%
• Probability: 55.2%
• Matchup: White Sox vs. Guardians (6:40PM ET)

A 5.2% edge and 55.2% probability make White Sox vs. Guardians over 7 runs a value play in the White Sox vs. Guardians matchup, per our model.

Tigers vs. Blue Jays Over 7.5 runs (-108)

• Edge: 5.1%
• Probability: 57%
• Matchup: Tigers vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET)

Tigers vs. Blue Jays Over 7.5 runs at -108 odds presents a 5.1% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 57%.

Mets ML (-113)

• Edge: 4.9%
• Probability: 57.8%
• Matchup: Orioles vs. Mets (7:10PM ET)

Our model finds value on Mets to win at -113 odds, supported by an edge of 4.9%.

Dodgers vs. Reds Over 8.5 runs (+117)

• Edge: 4.8%
• Probability: 50.9%
• Matchup: Dodgers vs. Reds (6:40PM ET)

Our model has uncovered value on Dodgers vs. Reds Over 8.5 runs at +117 odds. A 50.9% probability produces a 4.8% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

Diamondbacks -1.5 (+170)

• Edge: 4.2%
• Probability: 41.3%
• Matchup: Marlins vs. Diamondbacks (9:40PM ET)

A 4.2% edge on a 41.3% probability makes Diamondbacks -1.5 at +170 odds a solid value play in today's Marlins vs. Diamondbacks matchup.

Diamondbacks ML (-122)

• Edge: 3.3%
• Probability: 58.3%
• Matchup: Marlins vs. Diamondbacks (9:40PM ET)

Our model projects value on Diamondbacks to win at -122 odds. A 58.3% probability produces a 3.3% edge, making Diamondbacks the favorable ML play in today's matchup.

Giants vs. Cardinals Over 7.5 runs (-113)

• Edge: 2.7%
• Probability: 55.8%
• Matchup: Giants vs. Cardinals (7:45PM ET)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Giants vs. Cardinals Over 7.5 runs at -113 odds shows a 55.8% probability and a 2.7% edge.

MLB best bets summary: Monday, 9/14/2026

As of 2:35AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [9/14/2026]

• White Sox vs. Guardians (6:40PM ET, Monday)
• Dodgers vs. Reds (6:40PM ET, Monday)
• Tigers vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET, Monday)
• Orioles vs. Mets (7:10PM ET, Monday)
• Yankees vs. Twins (7:40PM ET, Monday)
• Braves vs. Cubs (7:40PM ET, Monday)
• Giants vs. Cardinals (7:45PM ET, Monday)
• Padres vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET, Monday)
• Mariners vs. Angels (9:38PM ET, Monday)
• Marlins vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET, Monday)

Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for September 14, 2026, featuring plays such as over 8.5 runs in the Marlins vs. Diamondbacks matchup and over 11 runs in the Padres vs. Rockies matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are rooted in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.