MLB picks today: Thursday's MLB best bets include Yankees vs. Orioles play [8/20/2026]

Yankees vs. Orioles Over 7.5 runs (-113)

• Edge: 6.6%
• Probability: 59.6%
• Matchup: Yankees vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET)

Our model has identified value on Over 7.5 runs in Yankees vs. Orioles at -113 odds. A 59.6% probability produces an edge of 6.6%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Giants vs. Guardians Over 7.5 runs (+106)

• Edge: 6.3%
• Probability: 54.8%
• Matchup: Giants vs. Guardians (1:10PM ET)

Giants vs. Guardians over 7.5 runs carries a 6.3% edge and a probability of 54.8% at +106 odds, according to our model.

Braves vs. White Sox Over 8.5 runs (-104)

• Edge: 5.6%
• Probability: 56.6%
• Matchup: Braves vs. White Sox (2:10PM ET)

Braves vs. White Sox Over 8.5 runs at -104 odds shows a 5.6% edge, supported by a 56.6% probability in simulations.

Nationals vs. Rangers over 7.5 runs (-104)

• Edge: 5.5%
• Probability: 56.5%
• Matchup: Nationals vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET)

A 5.5% edge and 56.5% probability make Nationals vs. Rangers over 7.5 runs a value play in the Nationals vs. Rangers matchup, per our model.

Mariners vs. Brewers Over 8.5 runs (+113)

• Edge: 5.5%
• Probability: 52.4%
• Matchup: Mariners vs. Brewers (2:10PM ET)

Mariners vs. Brewers Over 8.5 runs at +113 odds presents a 5.5% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 52.4%.

Athletics vs. Royals Over 8.5 runs (-108)

• Edge: 5.0%
• Probability: 56.9%
• Matchup: Athletics vs. Royals (2:10PM ET)

Our model finds value on Over 8.5 runs in Athletics vs. Royals at -108 odds, supported by an edge of 5.0%.

Mariners ML (+117)

• Edge: 4.8%
• Probability: 50.9%
• Matchup: Mariners vs. Brewers (2:10PM ET)

Our model has uncovered value on Mariners-Brewers to finish as a tie after 90 minutes at +117 odds. A 50.9% probability produces a 4.8% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

Blue Jays ML (+153)

• Edge: 3.8%
• Probability: 43.3%
• Matchup: Blue Jays vs. Rays (1:10PM ET)

A 3.8% edge on a 43.3% probability makes Blue Jays to win at +153 odds a solid value play in today's Blue Jays vs. Rays matchup.

Reds +1.5 (-138)

• Edge: 3.7%
• Probability: 61.7%
• Matchup: Cardinals vs. Reds (12:40PM ET)

Our model projects value on Reds +1.5 at -138 odds. A 61.7% probability produces a 3.7% edge, making Reds the favorable side in today's matchup.

Mariners +1.5 (-178)

• Edge: 3.6%
• Probability: 67.6%
• Matchup: Mariners vs. Brewers (2:10PM ET)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Mariners +1.5 at -178 odds shows a 67.6% probability and a 3.6% edge.

MLB best bets summary: Thursday, 8/20/2026

As of 7:06AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [8/20/2026]

• Cardinals vs. Reds (12:40PM ET, Thursday)
• Giants vs. Guardians (1:10PM ET, Thursday)
• Blue Jays vs. Rays (1:10PM ET, Thursday)
• Braves vs. White Sox (2:10PM ET, Thursday)
• Mariners vs. Brewers (2:10PM ET, Thursday)
• Athletics vs. Royals (2:10PM ET, Thursday)
• Yankees vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET, Thursday)
• Nationals vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET, Thursday)
• Angels vs. Astros (8:10PM ET, Thursday)

Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for August 20, 2026, featuring plays such as over 7.5 runs in the Yankees vs. Orioles matchup and over 7.5 runs in the Giants vs. Guardians matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are grounded in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.