Jul 22, 2026
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Read Article Marlins vs. Phillies prediction: Why Philadelphia is favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [6/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions for MLB Wednesday.
The Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Miami Marlins, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday, starting at 1:05 PM ET.
Andrew Painter (1-7, 6.43 ERA) will start on the mound for the Phillies, while the Marlins have opted for Sandy Alcantara (6-4, 4.25 ERA).
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Phillies a slight edge with a 54.6% win probability over the Marlins.
This article offers further insights into Wednesday's Marlins vs. Phillies matchup, including best bets and picks.
Marlins vs. Phillies prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's MLB game between the Marlins and Phillies, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Phillies a 54.6% chance of defeating the Marlins.
According to our model, the **9.5-run over/under **,.
Marlins vs. Phillies odds [6/17/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Marlins | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +103 | -118 |
| Total | o9.5 (+100) | u9.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Marlins vs. Phillies picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Phillies | -118 |
| Total | Over 9.5 | +100 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Marlins vs. Phillies game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's MLB action between the Phillies and Marlins at Citizens Bank Park is scheduled to commence at 1:05 PM ET.
- Who: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- Date: Wednesday, June 17, 2026
- Time: 1:05 PM ET/10:05AM PT
- Venue: Citizens Bank Park
Conclusion
We predict the Phillies, with a 54.6% win probability, will likely beat the Marlins in Wednesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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