Marlins vs. Reds prediction: Why Cincinnati is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [8/16/2026]

The Cincinnati Reds will take on the Miami Marlins, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Great American Ball Park on Sunday, commencing at 1:40 PM ET.

Nick Lodolo (3-2, 4.86 ERA) will get the ball for the Reds, while the Marlins are going with Eury Pérez (6-9, 3.39 ERA).

Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Reds a slight edge with a 51.9% win probability over the Marlins.

This article offers a complete Marlins vs. Reds prediction, including best bets and picks.

Marlins vs. Reds prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's MLB matchup between the Marlins and Reds, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Reds a 51.9% chance of defeating the Marlins.

According to our model, the Reds (+1.5) have a 61.8% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 54.3% chance of going over,.

Marlins vs. Reds odds [8/16/2026]

We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Marlins -1.5 (+141) / Reds +1.5 (-144)
• Moneyline: Marlins -117, Reds +114

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Marlins vs. Reds picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Reds +1.5 @ -144 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Reds @ +114 via Bet365
• Total: Over 8.5 @ +106 via Novig

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Marlins vs. Reds game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's MLB matchup between the Reds and Marlins at Great American Ball Park is scheduled to start at 1:40 PM ET.

• Who: Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
• Date: Sunday, August 16, 2026
• Time: 1:40 PM ET/10:40AM PT
• Venue: Great American Ball Park

Conclusion

We predict the Reds, with a 51.9% win probability, will likely beat the Marlins in Sunday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.