Marlins vs. Reds prediction: Why Cincinnati is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [8/16/2026]
Get Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Cincinnati Reds will square off with the Miami Marlins, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Great American Ball Park on Sunday, starting at 1:40 PM ET.
Nick Lodolo (3-2, 4.86 ERA) will get the ball for the Reds, while the Marlins are going with Eury Pérez (6-9, 3.39 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Reds a slight edge with a 51.0% win probability over the Marlins.
This article offers a complete Marlins vs. Reds prediction, including best bets and picks.
Marlins vs. Reds prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Reds a 51.0% chance of defeating the Marlins.
According to our model, the Reds (+1.5) have a 61.9% chance of covering the run line, while the 9.5-run over/under has a 53.6% chance of staying under,.
Marlins vs. Reds odds [8/16/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Marlins -1.5 (+144) / Reds +1.5 (-144)
- Moneyline: Marlins -113, Reds +111
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Marlins vs. Reds picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Reds +1.5 @ -144 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Reds @ +111 via DraftKings
- Total: Over 9.5 @ +120 via DraftKings
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Reds to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Marlins vs. Reds game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB matchup between the Reds and Marlins at Great American Ball Park is scheduled to begin at 1:40 PM ET.
- Who: Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Date: Sunday, August 16, 2026
- Time: 1:40 PM ET/10:40AM PT
- Venue: Great American Ball Park
Conclusion
We predict the Reds, with a 51.0% win probability, will likely beat the Marlins in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
