Marlins vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Why Arizona is favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [9/14/2026]

The Arizona Diamondbacks will take on the Miami Marlins in MLB action at Chase Field on Monday, starting at 9:40 PM ET.

Corbin Burnes (0-0, 0.00 ERA) will get the ball for the Diamondbacks, while the Marlins will counter with Sandy Alcantara (13-10, 3.78 ERA).

Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Diamondbacks as the most likely winner in this Marlins vs. Diamondbacks prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Monday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Marlins vs. Diamondbacks prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Monday's MLB game between the Marlins and Diamondbacks, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Diamondbacks a 58.0% chance of beating the Marlins. According to our model, the Marlins (+1.5) have a 58.6% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 57.7% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Marlins +1.5 (-167) / Diamondbacks -1.5 (+163)
• Moneyline: Marlins +125, Diamondbacks -127
• Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+104/-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Diamondbacks -1.5 @ 38¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Diamondbacks @ 56¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 8.5 @ 49¢ via Novig

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Monday's MLB game between the Diamondbacks and Marlins at Chase Field is scheduled to start at 9:40 PM ET.

• Who: Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
• Date: Monday, September 14, 2026
• Time: 9:40 PM ET/6:40PM PT
• Venue: Chase Field

Conclusion

We predict the Diamondbacks, with a 58.0% win probability, will likely beat the Marlins in Monday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.