Astros vs. Rays prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [9/13/2026]

The Tampa Bay Rays will square off with the Houston Astros, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Tropicana Field on Sunday, starting at 1:40 PM ET.

The Rays will have Freddy Peralta (8-11, 4.82 ERA) as their starting pitcher, pitting him against Hayden Wesneski (5-1, 3.35 ERA) for the Astros.

Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Rays a slight edge with a 52.5% win probability over the Astros.

This article offers a complete Astros vs. Rays prediction, including best bets and picks.

Astros vs. Rays prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLB game between the Astros and Rays, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Rays a 52.5% chance of beating the Astros. According to our model, the Astros (+1.5) have a 64.4% chance of covering the run line, while the 7.5-run over/under has a 56.7% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Astros +1.5 (-178) / Rays -1.5 (+174)
• Moneyline: Astros +120, Rays -117
• Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-111/+110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Astros +1.5 @ 64¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Astros @ +120 via bet365
• Total: Over 7.5 @ 53¢ via Novig

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Sunday's MLB matchup between the Rays and Astros at Tropicana Field is scheduled to commence at 1:40 PM ET.

• Who: Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays
• Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
• Time: 1:40 PM ET/10:40AM PT
• Venue: Tropicana Field

Conclusion

We predict the Rays, with a 52.5% win probability, will likely beat the Astros in Sunday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.