Sep 13, 2026
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Read Article Guardians vs. Twins prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [9/13/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 57.7% win probability for the Twins at Target Field.
The Minnesota Twins will square off with the Cleveland Guardians in MLB action at Target Field on Sunday, commencing at 2:10 PM ET.
Joe Ryan (6-9, 3.68 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Twins, up against Tanner Bibee (5-15, 4.22 ERA) for the Guardians.
Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Twins as the most likely winner in this Guardians vs. Twins prediction.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
For more, dive into Joe Ryan's pitching projections.
Guardians vs. Twins prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLB game between the Guardians and Twins, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Twins a 57.7% chance of defeating the Guardians. According to our model, the Guardians (+1.5) have a 59.8% chance of covering the run line, while the 7.5-run over/under has a 57.3% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Guardians +1.5 (-183) / Twins -1.5 (+178)
- Moneyline: Guardians +115, Twins -117
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-113/+108)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Twins -1.5 @ 36¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Twins @ 54¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 7.5 @ 53¢ via Polymarket
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Sunday's MLB game between the Twins and Guardians at Target Field is scheduled to begin at 2:10 PM ET.
- Who: Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins
- Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
- Time: 2:10 PM ET/11:10AM PT
- Venue: Target Field
Conclusion
We predict the Twins, with a 57.7% win probability, will likely beat the Guardians in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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