Aug 26, 2026
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Read Article Red Sox vs. Marlins prediction: Why Boston is favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [8/26/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins predictions for MLB Wednesday.
The Miami Marlins will face the Boston Red Sox in MLB action at loanDepot park on Wednesday, commencing at 6:40 PM ET.
The Marlins will have Ryan Gusto (0-3, 4.37 ERA) as their starting pitcher, pitting him against Sonny Gray (16-3, 2.79 ERA) for the Red Sox.
Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Red Sox as the most likely winner in this Red Sox vs. Marlins prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
For more, dive into Sonny Gray's projected pitching stats.
Red Sox vs. Marlins prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's MLB game between the Red Sox and Marlins, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Red Sox a 59.0% chance of beating the Marlins.
According to our model, the Marlins (+1.5) have a 54.2% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 55.9% chance of going over.
Red Sox vs. Marlins odds [8/26/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Red Sox -1.5 (+120) / Marlins +1.5 (-122)
- Moneyline: Red Sox -144, Marlins +143
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Red Sox vs. Marlins picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Red Sox -1.5 @ +120 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Red Sox @ -144 via Novig
- Total: Over 7.5 @ -108 via Polymarket
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Red Sox vs. Marlins game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's MLB action between the Marlins and Red Sox at loanDepot park is scheduled to commence at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins
- Date: Wednesday, August 26, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: loanDepot park
Conclusion
We predict the Red Sox, with a 59.0% win probability, will likely beat the Marlins in Wednesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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