Orioles vs. Twins prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [8/12/2026]
Get Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins predictions for MLB Wednesday.
The Minnesota Twins will take on the Baltimore Orioles, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Target Field on Wednesday, commencing at 1:40 PM ET.
Zebby Matthews (5-8, 5.23 ERA) will start for the Twins, pitting him against Shane Baz (4-11, 3.76 ERA) for the Orioles.
Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Twins a slight edge with a 53.2% win probability over the Orioles.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's Orioles vs. Twins matchup, including best bets and picks.
Orioles vs. Twins prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Twins a 53.2% chance of defeating the Orioles.
According to our model, the Twins (+1.5) have a 64.9% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 58.1% chance of going over,.
Orioles vs. Twins odds [8/12/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Orioles -1.5 (+165) / Twins +1.5 (-167)
- Moneyline: Orioles +102, Twins -104
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Orioles vs. Twins picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Twins +1.5 @ -167 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Twins @ -104 via Novig
- Total: Over 8.5 @ -114 via BetRivers
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Orioles vs. Twins game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's MLB action between the Twins and Orioles at Target Field is scheduled to commence at 1:40 PM ET.
- Who: Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins
- Date: Wednesday, August 12, 2026
- Time: 1:40 PM ET/10:40AM PT
- Venue: Target Field
Conclusion
We predict the Twins, with a 53.2% win probability, will likely beat the Orioles in Wednesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
