Real Sociedad vs. Celta Vigo prediction, odds, La Liga picks [9/3/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's La Liga match between Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model indicates a 50.1% chance of Real Sociedad winning, a 24.9% chance for Celta Vigo, and a 25.0% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 50.7% chance of staying under, with a 51.8% chance that both teams score.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Celta Vigo +376, Real Sociedad -117
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-113/+108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Celta Vigo @ +376 via Polymarket
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +108 via Polymarket

According to our best La Liga bets, the top play to make on this game is Celta Vigo to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Real Sociedad 1-1 Celta Vigo (11.9% probability)
• Real Sociedad 1-0 Celta Vigo (11.3%)
• Real Sociedad 2-1 Celta Vigo (9.5%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 51.8% chance of both Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo finding the net and a 48.2% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Thursday's La Liga game between Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo at Anoeta is scheduled to start in the United States at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Real Sociedad vs. Celta Vigo
• Date: Thursday, September 3, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Venue: Anoeta

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Real Sociedad has a 50.1% win probability on Thursday, Celta Vigo has a 24.9% win probability, and there is a 25.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.