Alaves vs. Villareal prediction, odds, La Liga picks [8/28/2026]

Alaves will take on Villareal in La Liga action at Estadio Mendizorrotza on Friday, starting at 3:30 PM ET.

Dimers' proven La Liga model projects Villareal as the most likely winner in this Alaves vs. Villareal prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's match, including best bets and picks.

For more, take a look at our insight into the La Liga title race, and how Mourinho can lead Real Madrid back to the top.

Alaves vs. Villareal prediction: Who will win?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's La Liga match between Alaves and Villareal, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model suggests a 32.5% chance of Alaves winning, a 42.4% chance for Villareal, and a 25.1% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 53.3% chance of going over, with a 56.7% probability that both teams score.

Alaves vs. Villareal odds

We have sourced the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Villareal +138, Alaves +223

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Alaves vs. Villareal picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Alaves @ +223 via Novig
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -115 via Novig

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Alaves to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Alaves vs. Villareal: Correct score and BTTS predictions

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Alaves 1-1 Villareal (11.8% probability)
• Alaves 0-1 Villareal (9.1%)
• Alaves 1-2 Villareal (8.9%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 56.7% chance of both sides finding the net and a 43.3% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.

Alaves vs. Villareal game-day updates and essential details

Friday's la-liga game between Alaves and Villareal at Estadio Mendizorrotza is scheduled to start in the United States at 3:30 PM ET.

• Who: Alaves vs. Villareal
• Date: Friday, August 28, 2026
• Time: 3:30 PM ET/12:30PM PT
• Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Alaves has a 32.5% win probability on Friday, Villareal has a 42.4% win probability, and there is a 25.1% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.