Alaves vs. Villareal prediction, odds, La Liga picks [8/28/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's La Liga match between Alaves and Villareal, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently indicates a 32.1% chance of Alaves winning, a 42.7% chance for Villareal, and a 25.3% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 52.3% chance of going over, with a 55.8% probability that both teams find the net.

Alaves vs. Villareal odds

We have sourced the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Villareal +130, Alaves +220

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Alaves vs. Villareal picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Alaves @ +220 via BetRivers
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -118 via BetRivers

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Alaves to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Alaves vs. Villareal: Correct score and BTTS predictions

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Alaves 1-1 Villareal (11.9% probability)
• Alaves 0-1 Villareal (9.4%)
• Alaves 1-2 Villareal (9%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 55.8% chance of both sides finding the net and a 44.2% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.

Alaves vs. Villareal game-day updates and essential details

Friday's la-liga action between Alaves and Villareal at Estadio Mendizorrotza is scheduled to commence in the USA at 3:30 PM ET.

• Who: Alaves vs. Villareal
• Date: Friday, August 28, 2026
• Time: 3:30 PM ET/12:30PM PT
• Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Alaves has a 32.1% win probability on Friday, Villareal has a 42.7% win probability, and there is a 25.3% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.