Aston Villa vs. Arsenal prediction, odds, Premier League picks [8/31/2026]

Aston Villa and Arsenal will meet in the Premier League at Villa Park on Monday, with kickoff at 3:00 PM ET.

Dimers' proven Premier League model projects Arsenal as the most likely winner in this Aston Villa vs. Arsenal prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's match, including best bets and picks.

For more, check out our view into the Premier League title race, and the best value bets to take in EPL futures right now.

Aston Villa vs. Arsenal prediction: Who will win?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's Premier League match between Aston Villa and Arsenal, forming part of our Premier League predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently suggests a 15.4% chance of Aston Villa winning, a 63.9% chance for Arsenal, and a 20.7% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 54.5% chance of going over, with a 50.1% likelihood of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.

Aston Villa vs. Arsenal odds

We have sourced the best Premier League odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Arsenal -178, Aston Villa +574

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Aston Villa vs. Arsenal picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Aston Villa @ +574 via Kalshi
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +122 via Polymarket

According to our Premier League best bets, the top play to make on this game is Aston Villa to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Aston Villa vs. Arsenal: Correct score and BTTS predictions

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-0 Arsenal win being the most probable:

• Aston Villa 0-2 Arsenal (11.4% probability)
• Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal (11.4%)
• Aston Villa 1-2 Arsenal (9.9%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 49.9% chance of both Aston Villa and Arsenal finding the net and a 50.1% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Aston Villa vs. Arsenal game-day updates and essential details

Monday's Premier League matchup between Aston Villa and Arsenal at Villa Park is scheduled to start in the United States at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Aston Villa vs. Arsenal
• Date: Monday, August 31, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Venue: Villa Park

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Aston Villa has a 15.4% win probability on Monday, Arsenal has a 63.9% win probability, and there is a 20.7% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.