Fresno State vs. Southern California prediction: Southern California favored to win in college football Week 1 [2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Fresno State vs. Southern California, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Southern California a 92.8% chance of beating Fresno State. Our predicted final score has Southern California winning 35-14.

According to our model, Fresno State (+22.5) has a 51.8% chance of covering the spread, while the 51.5-point over/under has a 53.2% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Fresno State +22.5 (-105) / Southern California -22.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Fresno State +1400, Southern California -2000
• Total: Over/Under 51.5 (-110/-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Fresno State +22.5 @ -105 via BetMGM
• Moneyline: Fresno State @ +1400 via BetRivers
• Total: Under 51.5 @ -105 via bet365

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 51.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Friday's college football action between Southern California and Fresno State at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum is scheduled to commence at 9:00 PM ET.

• Who: Fresno State vs. Southern California
• Date: Friday, September 4, 2026
• Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
• Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

College football Week 1 promos and codes

Make the most of Dimers' Fresno State vs. Southern California predictions by exploring the below offers.

Bet365 Sportsbook

Underdog Fantasy

Conclusion

We predict Southern California, with a 92.8% win probability, will likely beat Fresno State in Friday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.