College Football Week 1 Betting Preview: 4 Transfer QBs to Watch

The new era of college football betting shakes things up more than ever from season to season. Quarterbacks like Josh Hoover (Indiana) and Sam Leavitt (LSU) will debut for new teams with high expectations and in the wake of the transfer portal, NIL, and more roster turnover than ever, we've revamped our college football predictions, particularly at the player prop level, to more accurately reflect the ever-shifting landscape.

The first full week of college football has arrived, kicking off on Thursday, September 3 with games all the way through a jam-packed Saturday with more than 80 games and dozens of college football player props.

One of the biggest headlines at the start of the season is how quarterbacks will perform in their new role, whether arriving through the transfer portal, inheriting a starting job or starting as a freshman. 

To cut through the uncertainty around these new-look offenses, we're digging into the Dimers predictions for four games featuring a new starting QB, looking for the best college football bets to make in each, and staying away if our model says there's no value to be found.

Austin Simmons, Missouri

Game: Arkansas vs. Pine Bluff vs. Missouri

Date: Thursday, September 3, 2026

Time: 8:00 PM ET

QB Austin Simmons arrived at Ole Miss as a three-star recruit and got his shot in 2025, but the opportunity lasted all of two starts before a Week 2 injury against Kentucky brought that to a halt and by the time he was healthy, Trinidad Chambliss had taken the job and never let go as he led the Rebels to the playoffs.

Looking for a fresh start, he transferred to Missouri, beating out three others for the starting job in the spring.

HC Eli Drinkwitz has praised Simmons' arm talent and decision-making while addressing some turnover issues he'll need to clean up, showing honest confidence in his new starter.

Simmons gets a soft spot for his first game with Mizzou. From thousands of simulations by the Dimers model, the Tigers leave with a win in 99.9% of them, projecting a 53-point Missouri blowout as our average final score. Unsurprisingly, we find little edge at such a massive favorite and a spread of 54.5 points.

The more interesting play sits in the touchdown scorer market, where Missouri's upside gives bettors a number of genuine edges to work with.

An edge on Austin Simmons from the Dimers App.

Our model finds value in a crowded backfield with a handful of edges on transfer RB Xai'Shaun Edwards, but also on Simmons to find the end zone on the ground, with a 57.8% probability to score anytime while at odds of +100 on bet365, a 7.8% betting edge.

Josh Hoover, Indiana

Game: North Texas vs. Indiana

Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026

Time: 12:00 PM ET

No one is stepping into bigger shoes than QB Josh Hoover. In two years as TCU's starter, he set a TCU single-season record with 3,949 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, leading the Big 12 with 60 completions of 20-plus yards in 2024, before turning in 3,472 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions across an 8-4 record last year.

He heads to Indiana to follow up last year's perfect 14-0 championship run at the helm of current Las Vegas Raiders QB and reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Fernando Mendoza

Dimers has Indiana as the second-highest-probability team to win the Big Ten at 25.0% (+275), and gives the Hoosiers the best national championship odds of any of the four programs featured in this article at 11.5%, a small edge at +900 which implies only 10.0%.

Week 1 gives Hoover an excellent game to tune up for the season, with Indiana a 99.4% favorite to win by the Dimers model, with a 40.5-point spread. You won't find any value in those markets, but where you will, is in various Hoosiers to find the end zone.

Hoosiers WR Nick Marsh gets multiple touchdown edges on Saturday.

WRs Nick Marsh and Charlie Becker each get an edge to score one and multiple touchdowns in the game, with the best value on Marsh, who gets over a 10% edge in both markets.

Sam Leavitt, LSU

Game: Clemson vs. LSU

Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026

Time: 7:30 PM ET

As a redshirt freshman at Arizona State in 2024, Sam Leavitt threw for 2,885 yards and 24 touchdowns while adding 443 yards and five more scores on the ground, quarterbacking the Sun Devils to a Big 12 championship and a run to the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.

Year two did not go the same way when injuries limited him to seven games before announcing his transfer plans in December.

Leavitt landed at LSU, echoing now Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels exodus from ASU to LSU in 2022 before winning the Heisman Trophy a year later, an award Leavitt is currently at +2000 to win.

Dimers' preseason simulations give LSU a 6.1% chance to win the SEC, sitting with the 7th best chance in our predictions, but with the fourth-best odds, showing a misalignment in conference futures.

The Dimers model projects Sam Leavitt to clear his passing yards line vs. Clemson.

For Week 1, Leavitt's debut comes at home against Clemson, and our model predicts LSU to win in 69.1% of simulations. Leavitt predicts to clear his passing yards line of 264.5 with a 56.9% probability for some individual player prop value.

As far as the game is concerned, Dimers gives LSU the moneyline advantage, yet a strong 61.4% chance for Clemson to cover the +10.5-point spread, setting them up as a live underdog to potentially spoil Leavitt's debut in the Bayou.

DJ Lagway, Baylor

Game: Baylor vs. Auburn

Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026

Time: 3:30 PM ET

DJ Lagway arrived at Florida as a four-star recruit and was thrust into the starting job as a true freshman in 2024.

In 2025, he started all 12 games and threw for 2,264 yards on 213-of-337 passing with 16 touchdowns against 14 interceptions, the latter of which came in busts, including games of 2, 3 and 5 picks.

When Florida fired Billy Napier mid-season and brought in former Tulane coach Jon Sumrall, Lagway chose not to stick around for a new system and entered the portal, ultimately signing with Baylor, a program looking for a bounce-back of its own after a 5-7 finish in 2025.

Lagway may be enough to turn the program into one with a winning record, however, in the short-term, Dimers gives Baylor only a 1.0% shot at the Big 12 title.

It's not all bad news for the Lagway and the Bears, though. In Lagway's Baylor debut vs. Auburn, our model predicts Baylor with a great chance to cover the 7.5-point spread, at a 59.8% probability, signaling a high-edge bet at near-even money odds.

See how our betting value on Baylor compares across multiple sportsbooks.

They're also a good value for the upset, drawing a 39.6% probability to win against odds of +240, well off their fair odds of +153 per our model.

We've also identified value on a pair of Baylor WRs to score a touchdown, further pointing to the potential for Lagway to make in instant impact with his new team.

More CFB betting resources in Week 1

Week 1 is packed with best bets, predictions, player prop value and more, and Dimers Pro is your ultimate tool for finding an edge in it all.

Our Dimers Pro football season pass gives you complete access to every insight from now through the end of the season, available now at a significant early bird discount.

Learn more below and lock in for the season!