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Maple Leafs vs. Oilers Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Oilers NHL game on February 3, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
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NHL
Maple Leafs
5
2
Feb 4, 1:30AM Rogers Place
Oilers
Feb 4, 1:30AM Rogers Place
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
0 2 3 5
Oilers
0 1 1 2
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Maple LeafsTOR
Win %
100%
0%
OilersEDM
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
0 2 3 5
Oilers
0 1 1 2
P3 18:53 Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 17:20 Goal scored by Bobby McMann
P3 15:01 Shot on goal by Leon Draisaitl saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 13:46 Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by Connor Ingram
P3 13:38 Darnell Nurse shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
P3 12:34 Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Nicholas Robertson
P3 11:14 Shot on goal by Jack Roslovic saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 10:31 Shot on goal by Vasily Podkolzin saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 09:23 Shot on goal by Josh Samanski saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 08:13 Power play - Goal scored by Matias Maccelli assisted by Max Domi and Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 07:42 Power play - Goal scored by John Tavares assisted by William Nylander and Matthew Knies
P3 07:31 Power play - Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Connor Ingram
P3 07:09 Power play - Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by teammate
P3 05:38 Shot on goal by Evan Bouchard saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 02:22 Shot on goal by Spencer Stastney saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 02:11 Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Connor Ingram
P3 02:06 Shot missed by Auston Matthews
P3 01:50 Shot missed by Evan Bouchard
P3 01:12 Shot on goal by Kasperi Kapanen saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 00:27 Shot on goal by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins saved by Anthony Stolarz
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
P3 20:00
End of 3rd Period.
P3 19:28
Josh Samanski won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
P3 19:28
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
P3 18:56
Matthew Knies won faceoff against Oilers in neutral zone
P3 18:53
SHOT
Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 17:20
GOAL
Goal scored by Bobby McMann
4-2
P3 16:34
Giveaway by Darnell Nurse in defensive zone
P3 15:42
Trent Frederic credited with hit on Jake McCabe in offensive zone
P3 15:30
Scott Laughton credited with hit on Ty Emberson in offensive zone
P3 15:01
SHOT
Shot on goal by Leon Draisaitl saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 13:46
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by Connor Ingram
P3 13:38
SHOT
Darnell Nurse shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
P3 13:36
Stoppage - High Stick
P3 12:34
SHOT
Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Nicholas Robertson
P3 11:14
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jack Roslovic saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 11:01
Trent Frederic credited with hit on Troy Stecher in offensive zone
P3 10:44
Giveaway by Darnell Nurse in defensive zone
P3 10:34
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Jack Roslovic in defensive zone
P3 10:31
SHOT
Shot on goal by Vasily Podkolzin saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 09:50
John Tavares won faceoff against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in defensive zone
P3 09:23
SHOT
Shot on goal by Josh Samanski saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 08:56
Giveaway by Jake McCabe in neutral zone
P3 08:13
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Connor McDavid in neutral zone
P3 08:13
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by Matias Maccelli assisted by Max Domi and Oliver Ekman-Larsson
4-2
P3 07:42
Power play - Max Domi won faceoff against Connor McDavid in neutral zone
P3 07:42
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by John Tavares assisted by William Nylander and Matthew Knies
3-2
P3 07:31
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Connor Ingram
P3 07:09
SHOT
Power play - Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by teammate
P3 06:44
John Tavares won faceoff against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in offensive zone
P3 06:38
Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in offensive zone
P3 05:47
Giveaway by Leon Draisaitl in offensive zone
P3 05:38
SHOT
Shot on goal by Evan Bouchard saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 04:27
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
P3 04:01
Jack Roslovic won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
P3 03:52
Trent Frederic won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
P3 03:37
Giveaway by Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
P3 02:22
SHOT
Shot on goal by Spencer Stastney saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 02:11
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Connor Ingram
P3 02:06
SHOT
Shot missed by Auston Matthews
P3 01:52
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in defensive zone
P3 01:50
SHOT
Shot missed by Evan Bouchard
P3 01:45
Stoppage - Icing
P3 01:37
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Oilers in neutral zone
P3 01:14
John Tavares won faceoff against Vasily Podkolzin in defensive zone
P3 01:12
SHOT
Shot on goal by Kasperi Kapanen saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 00:27
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 00:00
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Connor McDavid in neutral zone
P2 20:00
End of 2nd Period.
P2 19:52
Stoppage - Icing
P2 19:45
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in defensive zone
P2 18:43
SHOT
Shot missed by John Tavares
P2 18:32
Connor McDavid won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
P2 18:25
SHOT
Darnell Nurse shot blocked by Troy Stecher
P2 18:02
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Walman saved by Anthony Stolarz
P2 17:08
Ty Emberson credited with hit on Max Domi in neutral zone
P2 16:04
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Connor Ingram
P2 15:48
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mattias Ekholm saved by Anthony Stolarz
P2 15:28
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P2 15:21
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in defensive zone
P2 15:21
Stoppage - Puck Frozen
P2 14:30
Giveaway by Matias Maccelli in neutral zone
P2 14:13
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Connor McDavid in defensive zone
P2 14:13
Stoppage - Icing
P2 13:56
SHOT
Shot missed by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
P2 13:27
SHOT
Shot missed by Vasily Podkolzin
P2 13:12
SHOT
Leon Draisaitl shot blocked by Simon Benoit
P2 12:36
SHOT
Shot missed by Spencer Stastney
P2 12:08
SHOT
Shot on goal by Darnell Nurse saved by Anthony Stolarz
P2 11:57
SHOT
Shot missed by Kasperi Kapanen
P2 11:18
Jack Roslovic won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
P2 11:17
SHOT
Shot missed by Matthew Knies
P2 11:09
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Jack Roslovic in neutral zone
P2 11:05
Jack Roslovic won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
P2 10:32
William Nylander won faceoff against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in defensive zone
P2 10:29
SHOT
Shot missed by Zach Hyman
P2 09:02
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in defensive zone
P2 09:02
Stoppage - Puck in Penalty Benches
P2 08:42
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Jack Roslovic in offensive zone
P2 08:42
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P2 07:54
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Connor Ingram
P2 07:46
SHOT
Shot on goal by Trent Frederic saved by Anthony Stolarz
P2 07:28
SHOT
Shot on goal by Leon Draisaitl saved by Anthony Stolarz
P2 07:12
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Trent Frederic in neutral zone
P2 07:10
SHOT
Shot missed by Matias Maccelli
P2 07:02
SHOT
Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Connor Ingram
P2 06:25
SHOT
Philippe Myers shot blocked by Ty Emberson
P2 06:23
Brandon Carlo credited with hit on Connor McDavid in neutral zone
P2 06:04
SHOT
Shot missed by Matthew Knies
P2 05:56
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Josh Samanski in defensive zone
P2 05:56
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 05:17
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in defensive zone
P2 05:17
Penalty to Darnell Nurse 2 minutes for Misconduct
P2 05:17
Stoppage - Referee or Linesperson
P2 04:58
SHOT
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P2 04:22
Giveaway by Trent Frederic in neutral zone
P2 03:27
SHOT
Shot on goal by Darnell Nurse saved by Anthony Stolarz
P2 02:48
Giveaway by Jack Roslovic in offensive zone
P2 02:12
SHOT
Shot missed by Spencer Stastney
P2 02:04
SHOT
Shot on goal by Kasperi Kapanen saved by Anthony Stolarz
P2 00:54
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Connor Ingram
P2 00:36
SHOT
Shot missed by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
P2 00:09
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Oilers in neutral zone
P2 00:02
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by Connor Ingram
P1 20:00
End of 1st Period.
P1 19:22
SHOT
Leon Draisaitl shot blocked by Troy Stecher
P1 18:09
SHOT
Shot missed by Scott Laughton
P1 17:31
SHOT
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
P1 16:46
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in offensive zone
P1 16:45
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Connor Ingram
P1 16:24
Penalty to Andrew Mangiapane 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Oliver Ekman-Larsson)
P1 16:24
Stoppage - Puck Frozen
P1 16:09
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Darnell Nurse in offensive zone
P1 15:45
Giveaway by Mattias Janmark in offensive zone
P1 15:40
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Trent Frederic in defensive zone
P1 15:40
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 14:42
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Connor McDavid in defensive zone
P1 14:40
SHOT
Spencer Stastney shot blocked by Matias Maccelli
P1 14:10
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Oilers in neutral zone
P1 14:07
SHOT
Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Connor Ingram
P1 13:29
SHOT
Shot missed by Kasperi Kapanen
P1 13:15
Simon Benoit credited with hit on Kasperi Kapanen in defensive zone
P1 12:42
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot missed by Scott Laughton
P1 12:14
Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in neutral zone
P1 11:44
SHOT
Power play - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P1 11:34
SHOT
Power play - Zach Hyman shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
P1 11:00
Power play - Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
P1 11:00
Penalty to Oliver Ekman-Larsson 2 minutes for Misconduct
P1 10:32
Giveaway by Max Domi in offensive zone
P1 09:21
Darnell Nurse credited with hit on Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
P1 09:14
SHOT
Shot on goal by Darnell Nurse saved by Anthony Stolarz
P1 08:14
SHOT
Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P1 07:59
Stoppage - Icing
P1 07:14
Giveaway by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in defensive zone
P1 07:08
Takeaway by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in defensive zone
P1 06:51
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Oilers in defensive zone
P1 06:49
SHOT
Mattias Ekholm shot blocked by teammate
P1 06:19
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nicolas Roy saved by Connor Ingram
P1 05:20
Giveaway by Ty Emberson in neutral zone
P1 05:07
SHOT
Ty Emberson shot blocked by teammate
P1 04:49
Jack Roslovic won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
P1 04:47
SHOT
Evan Bouchard shot blocked by William Nylander
P1 04:20
Stoppage - Icing
P1 04:14
Giveaway by William Nylander in offensive zone
P1 04:01
SHOT
Connor McDavid shot blocked by Simon Benoit
P1 03:05
Connor McDavid won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
P1 03:03
SHOT
Shot missed by Trent Frederic
P1 02:45
Giveaway by Mattias Janmark in offensive zone
P1 02:36
Giveaway by Troy Stecher in defensive zone
P1 01:45
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 01:41
Kasperi Kapanen credited with hit on Oliver Ekman-Larsson in offensive zone
P1 01:17
Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P1 01:03
Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P1 01:00
SHOT
Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by Connor Ingram
P1 00:54
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by Connor Ingram
P1 00:04
Connor McDavid won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
P1 00:00
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Connor McDavid in neutral zone
Stats
Maple Leafs
STATS
Oilers
27Shots on Goal36
54% Faceoff Win % 46%
2/2 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 1/0
9Penalty Infraction Mins21
13Hits19
18Shots Blocked7
18Giveaways13
Maple LeafsTOR
OilersEDM
27Shots on Goal36
54% Faceoff Win % 46%
2/2 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 1/0
9Penalty Infraction Mins21
13Hits19
18Shots Blocked7
18Giveaways13

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Maple Leafs vs. Oilers: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Oilers
  • Date: Tuesday, February 3, 2026
  • Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Rogers Place

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Oilers favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs +160, Oilers -190

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Maple Leafs: 40%
  • Oilers: 60%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 40%, while the Oilers have a win probability of 60%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Oilers are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Rogers Place on Wednesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Oilers predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.

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