Maple Leafs vs. Penguins Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Penguins NHL game on March 2, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.

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FINAL

NHL

FINAL

NHL

Maple Leafs

Mar 2, 6PM PPG Paints Arena

Penguins

Mar 2, 6PM PPG Paints Arena

In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play

Game PredictionsPre-Game

Best Bets

TEAM	1	2	3	OT	T
Maple Leafs	2	3	0	1	6
Penguins	3	1	1	0	5

Live Probabilities

Moneyline

Over / Under

Maple LeafsTOR

Win %

100%

PenguinsPIT

Win Probability

TEAM	1	2	3	OT	T
Maple Leafs	2	3	0	1	6
Penguins	3	1	1	0	5

Play by Play

GOALS

ALL

OT1 05:00

End of 1st OT.

OT1 01:00

GOAL

Goal scored by William Nylander assisted by Morgan Rielly

6-5

OT1 00:37

SHOT

Shot missed by Morgan Rielly

OT1 00:18

Giveaway by Auston Matthews in neutral zone

OT1 00:00

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Kevin Hayes in neutral zone

P3 20:00

End of 3rd Period.

P3 19:13

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone

P3 19:13

Stoppage - Referee or Linesperson

P3 18:56

John Tavares won faceoff against Cody Glass in offensive zone

P3 18:56

Stoppage - Puck in Crowd

P3 18:02

SHOT

Ryan Shea shot blocked by John Tavares

P3 17:12

Bobby McMann credited with hit on Danton Heinen in offensive zone

P3 17:04

Max Domi won faceoff against Kevin Hayes in offensive zone

P3 17:04

Stoppage - Icing

P3 16:42

Rickard Rakell credited with hit on Conor Timmins in offensive zone

P3 16:32

SHOT

Kris Letang shot blocked by Matthew Knies

P3 16:02

Takeaway by Erik Karlsson in offensive zone

P3 15:57

SHOT

Anthony Beauvillier shot blocked by Morgan Rielly

P3 15:45

SHOT

Shot missed by Evgeni Malkin

P3 15:40

SHOT

Shot on goal by Matt Grzelcyk saved by Joseph Woll

P3 15:33

SHOT

Anthony Beauvillier shot blocked by teammate

P3 15:15

John Tavares won faceoff against Evgeni Malkin in defensive zone

P3 15:15

Stoppage - Icing

P3 14:41

John Tavares won faceoff against Blake Lizotte in offensive zone

P3 14:41

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout

P3 14:39

SHOT

Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Joel Blomqvist

P3 13:25

Noel Acciari credited with hit on Simon Benoit in defensive zone

P3 13:22

SHOT

Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Joel Blomqvist

P3 13:17

SHOT

Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Joel Blomqvist

P3 13:09

John Tavares won faceoff against Cody Glass in defensive zone

P3 13:09

Stoppage - Puck in Benches

P3 12:57

Max Domi won faceoff against Evgeni Malkin in offensive zone

P3 12:57

Stoppage - Icing

P3 12:49

Evgeni Malkin won faceoff against Max Domi in defensive zone

P3 12:49

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P3 12:47

SHOT

Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Joel Blomqvist

P3 12:42

SHOT

Shot missed by Mitch Marner

P3 12:29

Giveaway by Rickard Rakell in defensive zone

P3 12:24

Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone

P3 12:24

Stoppage - Icing

P3 12:18

Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone

P3 12:18

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P3 12:16

SHOT

Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Joel Blomqvist

P3 11:45

Giveaway by Erik Karlsson in defensive zone

P3 10:31

Giveaway by Bobby McMann in defensive zone

P3 10:14

Max Domi won faceoff against Philip Tomasino in offensive zone

P3 10:14

Stoppage - Puck Frozen - TV timeout

P3 10:08

SHOT

Shot missed by Morgan Rielly

P3 09:03

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone

P3 09:03

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P3 09:01

SHOT

Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Joseph Woll

P3 08:51

SHOT

Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Joseph Woll

P3 08:46

Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone

P3 08:46

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P3 08:16

David Kampf won faceoff against Kevin Hayes in defensive zone

P3 08:16

Stoppage - Icing

P3 07:24

Giveaway by Bobby McMann in defensive zone

P3 06:27

SHOT

Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Pontus Holmberg

P3 06:16

SHOT

Shot on goal by Cody Glass saved by Joseph Woll

P3 06:10

Blake Lizotte won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone

P3 06:10

Stoppage - Puck in Benches - TV timeout

P3 06:03

SHOT

Shot missed by Morgan Rielly

P3 04:29

SHOT

Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Joel Blomqvist

P3 04:24

SHOT

Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by Evgeni Malkin

P3 04:19

SHOT

Shot on goal by Conor Timmins saved by Joel Blomqvist

P3 04:16

SHOT

Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by Vincent Desharnais

P3 03:59

Blake Lizotte won faceoff against Max Domi in defensive zone

P3 03:59

Stoppage - Icing

P3 02:56

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in offensive zone

P3 02:56

Stoppage - Icing

P3 02:37

SHOT

Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Joseph Woll

P3 01:20

SHOT

Shot on goal by Conor Timmins saved by Joel Blomqvist

P3 01:16

Max Domi won faceoff against Evgeni Malkin in offensive zone

P3 01:14

SHOT

Shot on goal by Simon Benoit saved by Joel Blomqvist

P3 01:04

SHOT

Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Joel Blomqvist

P3 00:44

Giveaway by John Tavares in defensive zone

P3 00:41

Giveaway by Cody Glass in offensive zone

P3 00:10

John Tavares won faceoff against Blake Lizotte in neutral zone

P3 00:10

GOAL

Goal scored by Rickard Rakell

5-5

P3 00:00

Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone

P2 20:00

End of 2nd Period.

P2 20:00

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone

P2 19:59

GOAL

Goal scored by Matthew Knies

5-4

P2 19:59

Stoppage - Video Review

P2 19:54

Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone

P2 19:54

Stoppage - Icing

P2 19:04

Cody Glass won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone

P2 19:04

GOAL

Goal scored by John Tavares

4-4

P2 17:47

SHOT

Shot on goal by Matt Grzelcyk saved by Joseph Woll

P2 17:44

Sidney Crosby won faceoff against David Kampf in offensive zone

P2 16:59

SHOT

Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by Ryan Shea

P2 16:07

SHOT

Shot missed by Blake Lizotte

P2 15:38

Cody Glass won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone

P2 15:38

GOAL

Goal scored by Bryan Rust assisted by Sidney Crosby and Erik Karlsson

3-4

P2 15:06

SHOT

Shot missed by Auston Matthews

P2 14:55

SHOT

Shot missed by Danton Heinen

P2 14:19

SHOT

Shot missed by Kevin Hayes

P2 14:13

SHOT

Shot missed by Emil Bemstrom

P2 13:21

Giveaway by Evgeni Malkin in offensive zone

P2 12:45

SHOT

Shot missed by Blake Lizotte

P2 12:41

SHOT

Noel Acciari shot blocked by Jake McCabe

P2 12:29

SHOT

Shot on goal by Cody Glass saved by Joseph Woll

P2 12:13

SHOT

Shot missed by Ryan Shea

P2 11:55

SHOT

Cody Glass shot blocked by teammate

P2 11:53

Blake Lizotte won faceoff against David Kampf in offensive zone

P2 11:53

Stoppage - Icing

P2 11:45

SHOT

Shot on goal by Anthony Beauvillier saved by Joseph Woll

P2 11:40

SHOT

Anthony Beauvillier shot blocked by Jake McCabe

P2 10:57

SHOT

Shot on goal by Rickard Rakell saved by Joseph Woll

P2 10:31

Giveaway by Mitch Marner in offensive zone

P2 10:22

SHOT

Shot missed by Auston Matthews

P2 10:21

SHOT

Shot missed by Bobby McMann

P2 10:12

SHOT

Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Joel Blomqvist

P2 10:07

SHOT

Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Joel Blomqvist

P2 08:59

SHOT

Power play - William Nylander shot blocked by Vincent Desharnais

P2 08:52

SHOT

Power play - Shot missed by John Tavares

P2 08:39

SHOT

Power play - Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Joel Blomqvist

P2 08:27

SHOT

Power play - John Tavares shot blocked by Ryan Shea

P2 08:01

Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Noel Acciari in offensive zone

P2 08:01

Penalty to Kris Letang 2 minutes for Misconduct

P2 08:01

Penalty to Ryan Shea 2 minutes for Misconduct

P2 07:34

SHOT

Shot on goal by Rickard Rakell saved by Joseph Woll

P2 07:01

SHOT

Shot on goal by Simon Benoit saved by Joel Blomqvist

P2 06:59

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in offensive zone

P2 06:59

Stoppage - TV timeout

P2 06:57

SHOT

Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Joel Blomqvist

P2 06:50

SHOT

Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Joel Blomqvist

P2 06:30

SHOT

Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Joel Blomqvist

P2 06:15

SHOT

Shot on goal by Danton Heinen saved by Joseph Woll

P2 04:55

John Tavares won faceoff against Cody Glass in defensive zone

P2 04:55

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P2 04:51

SHOT

Shot on goal by Kris Letang saved by Joseph Woll

P2 04:22

SHOT

Shot on goal by Philip Tomasino saved by Joseph Woll

P2 04:08

Max Domi won faceoff against Evgeni Malkin in neutral zone

P2 04:08

GOAL

Goal scored by Auston Matthews assisted by Matthew Knies and Mitch Marner

3-3

P2 04:03

SHOT

Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Joel Blomqvist

P2 03:35

SHOT

Shot missed by Rickard Rakell

P2 03:14

SHOT

Shot missed by Ryan Graves

P2 02:48

SHOT

Shot on goal by Danton Heinen saved by Joseph Woll

P2 01:39

Giveaway by Blake Lizotte in neutral zone

P2 01:32

SHOT

Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Joel Blomqvist

P2 01:08

SHOT

Maple Leafs shot blocked by Ryan Shea

P2 00:35

SHOT

Bobby McMann shot blocked by Kris Letang

P2 00:12

SHOT

Bryan Rust shot blocked by Morgan Rielly

P2 00:00

Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone

P1 20:00

End of 1st Period.

P1 19:58

SHOT

Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson

P1 18:34

SHOT

Shot on goal by Vincent Desharnais saved by Joseph Woll

P1 18:24

SHOT

Shot on goal by Penguins saved by Joseph Woll

P1 18:18

SHOT

Shot on goal by Philip Tomasino saved by Joseph Woll

P1 18:01

SHOT

Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Anthony Beauvillier

P1 17:53

SHOT

Pontus Holmberg shot blocked by Matt Grzelcyk

P1 16:53

SHOT

Power play - Shot on goal by Sidney Crosby saved by Joseph Woll

P1 16:52

SHOT

Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Joseph Woll

P1 16:33

Mitch Marner won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone

P1 16:31

SHOT

Shot on goal by Sidney Crosby saved by Joseph Woll

P1 16:28

SHOT

Shot missed by Rickard Rakell

P1 16:18

SHOT

Shot missed by Bryan Rust

P1 16:08

Sidney Crosby won faceoff against David Kampf in offensive zone

P1 16:08

Stoppage - Puck in Netting

P1 15:47

Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone

P1 15:47

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P1 15:46

SHOT

Power play - Shot on goal by Sidney Crosby saved by Joseph Woll

P1 15:45

Power play - Kevin Hayes won faceoff against David Kampf in offensive zone

P1 15:45

Stoppage - TV timeout

P1 15:45

Penalty to Max Domi 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Ryan Graves)

P1 13:51

John Tavares won faceoff against Cody Glass in neutral zone

P1 13:51

GOAL

Power play - Goal scored by Sidney Crosby assisted by Erik Karlsson and Bryan Rust

2-3

P1 13:25

SHOT

Shorthanded - Shot missed by Mitch Marner

P1 13:13

SHOT

Power play - Sidney Crosby shot blocked by Simon Benoit

P1 13:08

Power play - Kevin Hayes won faceoff against David Kampf in offensive zone

P1 13:08

Penalty to Max Domi 2 minutes for Slashing (Drawn by Evgeni Malkin)

P1 13:06

SHOT

Shot on goal by Evgeni Malkin saved by Joseph Woll

P1 12:42

Max Domi won faceoff against Evgeni Malkin in defensive zone

P1 12:42

Stoppage - Puck in Netting

P1 12:40

SHOT

Shot on goal by Kris Letang saved by Joseph Woll

P1 12:30

SHOT

Ryan Shea shot blocked by Pontus Holmberg

P1 12:10

John Tavares won faceoff against Cody Glass in defensive zone

P1 12:10

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P1 12:08

SHOT

Shot on goal by Ryan Graves saved by Joseph Woll

P1 12:03

Kevin Hayes won faceoff against David Kampf in offensive zone

P1 12:03

Stoppage - Puck in Netting

P1 12:00

SHOT

Kevin Hayes shot blocked by Philippe Myers

P1 11:54

David Kampf won faceoff against Kevin Hayes in defensive zone

P1 11:54

Stoppage - Puck in Crowd

P1 11:37

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in offensive zone

P1 11:37

Stoppage - Icing

P1 11:29

Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone

P1 11:29

GOAL

Goal scored by Rickard Rakell

2-2

P1 11:25

SHOT

Shot missed by Matt Grzelcyk

P1 11:23

Sidney Crosby won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone

P1 11:23

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P1 11:21

SHOT

Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Joseph Woll

P1 11:04

SHOT

Shot on goal by Evgeni Malkin saved by Joseph Woll

P1 10:33

Max Domi won faceoff against Evgeni Malkin in neutral zone

P1 10:33

Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout

P1 10:27

Evgeni Malkin won faceoff against Max Domi in neutral zone

P1 10:27

GOAL

Goal scored by Ryan Shea assisted by Blake Lizotte

2-1

P1 09:43

SHOT

Shot missed by Kevin Hayes

P1 09:24

SHOT

Shot missed by Erik Karlsson

P1 09:21

Kevin Hayes won faceoff against David Kampf in offensive zone

P1 09:21

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P1 09:19

SHOT

Shot on goal by Ryan Shea saved by Joseph Woll

P1 08:54

SHOT

Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Joel Blomqvist

P1 08:44

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in defensive zone

P1 08:44

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P1 08:41

SHOT

Shot missed by Vincent Desharnais

P1 08:30

SHOT

Evgeni Malkin shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson

P1 08:18

SHOT

Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Erik Karlsson

P1 08:01

SHOT

Bobby McMann shot blocked by Anthony Beauvillier

P1 07:47

SHOT

Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Joel Blomqvist

P1 07:16

Cody Glass won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone

P1 07:16

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout

P1 07:15

SHOT

Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Joel Blomqvist

P1 07:12

SHOT

Shot missed by William Nylander

P1 06:41

SHOT

Noel Acciari shot blocked by Simon Benoit

P1 06:18

SHOT

Kris Letang shot blocked by Matthew Knies

P1 06:16

Cody Glass won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone

P1 06:16

Stoppage - Icing

P1 06:02

SHOT

Shot on goal by Mitch Marner saved by Joel Blomqvist

P1 05:40

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in offensive zone

P1 05:40

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P1 05:38

SHOT

Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Joel Blomqvist

P1 04:39

Max Domi won faceoff against Evgeni Malkin in neutral zone

P1 04:39

GOAL

Goal scored by Conor Timmins assisted by Pontus Holmberg and William Nylander

2-0

P1 04:29

John Tavares won faceoff against Cody Glass in offensive zone

P1 04:29

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P1 04:27

SHOT

Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg

P1 04:21

SHOT

Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Joel Blomqvist

P1 03:19

SHOT

Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Joel Blomqvist

P1 03:13

SHOT

Shot missed by Jake McCabe

P1 03:05

SHOT

Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Joel Blomqvist

P1 02:53

SHOT

David Kampf shot blocked by teammate

P1 02:29

SHOT

Shot on goal by Kris Letang saved by Joseph Woll

P1 02:27

SHOT

Kevin Hayes shot blocked by David Kampf

P1 02:22

SHOT

Shot missed by Maple Leafs

P1 02:18

SHOT

Shot missed by Kris Letang

P1 02:15

Kevin Hayes won faceoff against David Kampf in neutral zone

P1 02:15

GOAL

Goal scored by Max Domi assisted by Bobby McMann and Nicholas Robertson

1-0

P1 02:07

SHOT

Shot on goal by Simon Benoit saved by Joel Blomqvist

P1 02:02

Max Domi won faceoff against Evgeni Malkin in neutral zone

P1 02:02

Stoppage - Offside

P1 01:32

SHOT

Shot on goal by Cody Glass saved by Joseph Woll

P1 01:23

SHOT

Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg

P1 01:21

John Tavares won faceoff against Blake Lizotte in offensive zone

P1 01:21

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P1 01:19

SHOT

Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Joel Blomqvist

P1 01:18

John Tavares won faceoff against Blake Lizotte in offensive zone

P1 01:18

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P1 01:16

SHOT

Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Joel Blomqvist

P1 00:50

SHOT

Bryan Rust shot blocked by Auston Matthews

P1 00:00

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone

P1 00:00

Game Setup.

Stats

Maple Leafs		STATS		Penguins

33	Shots on Goal	34
56%	Faceoff Win %	44%
1/0	PP Opportunities/PP Goals	2/1
4	Penalty Infraction Mins	2
23	Hits	13
19	Shots Blocked	13
17	Giveaways	21

Maple LeafsTOR			PenguinsPIT

33	Shots on Goal	34
56%	Faceoff Win %	44%
1/0	PP Opportunities/PP Goals	2/1
4	Penalty Infraction Mins	2
23	Hits	13
19	Shots Blocked	13
17	Giveaways	21

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Maple Leafs vs. Penguins: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Penguins
Date: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: PPG Paints Arena

Current Betting Odds

Spread: Maple Leafs favored at -1.5
Total (Over/Under): 6.5
Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs -190, Penguins +175

Dimers' Win Probabilities

Maple Leafs: 60%
Penguins: 40%

Dimers.com's predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 60%, while the Penguins have a win probability of 40%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Maple Leafs are more likely to beat the Penguins in the NHL game at PPG Paints Arena on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Penguins predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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