Lightning vs. Capitals Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Lightning vs. Capitals NHL game on March 1, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.

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FINAL

NHL

FINAL

NHL

Lightning

Mar 1, 5:30PM Capital One Arena

Capitals

Mar 1, 5:30PM Capital One Arena

In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play

Game PredictionsPre-Game

Best Bets

TEAM	1	2	3	T
Lightning	1	0	2	3
Capitals	0	0	1	1

Live Probabilities

Moneyline

Over / Under

LightningTB

Win %

100%

CapitalsWSH

Win Probability

TEAM	1	2	3	T
Lightning	1	0	2	3
Capitals	0	0	1	1

Play by Play

GOALS

ALL

P3 20:00

End of 3rd Period.

P3 19:54

SHOT

Power play - Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Brandon Hagel

P3 19:50

SHOT

Power play - Shot on goal by Dylan Strome saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

P3 19:46

SHOT

Power play - Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin

P3 19:41

SHOT

Power play - Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

P3 19:40

Power play - Pierre-Luc Dubois won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone

P3 19:40

Penalty to Luke Glendening 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Ethen Frank)

P3 19:01

Nick Paul won faceoff against Lars Eller in neutral zone

P3 19:01

GOAL

Goal scored by Brandon Hagel (Empty Net)

3-1

P3 18:43

SHOT

Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh

P3 18:00

Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Pierre-Luc Dubois in neutral zone

P3 18:00

Stoppage - Offside

P3 17:18

SHOT

Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh

P3 16:01

Pierre-Luc Dubois won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone

P3 16:01

GOAL

Goal scored by Alex Ovechkin assisted by Matt Roy

2-1

P3 15:55

SHOT

Matt Roy shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons

P3 15:08

Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone

P3 15:08

Stoppage - Puck in Netting

P3 15:07

SHOT

Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Erik Cernak

P3 15:06

Dylan Strome won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone

P3 15:06

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout

P3 15:02

SHOT

Shot on goal by Martin Fehervary saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

P3 14:07

SHOT

Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Darren Raddysh

P3 13:25

Nick Paul won faceoff against Lars Eller in defensive zone

P3 13:25

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P3 13:23

SHOT

Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

P3 11:51

SHOT

Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Rasmus Sandin

P3 10:56

Taylor Raddysh credited with hit on Victor Hedman in offensive zone

P3 10:47

Nic Dowd won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone

P3 10:47

Stoppage - Puck Frozen

P3 10:22

Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone

P3 10:22

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout

P3 10:20

SHOT

Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

P3 09:54

SHOT

Shot on goal by Tom Wilson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

P3 08:55

SHOT

Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Logan Thompson

P3 08:49

Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Lars Eller in defensive zone

P3 08:49

Stoppage - Offside

P3 08:22

Dylan Strome won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone

P3 08:22

Stoppage - Net Dislodged Defensive Skater

P3 07:31

Giveaway by Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone

P3 07:18

SHOT

John Carlson shot blocked by J.J. Moser

P3 07:05

Pierre-Luc Dubois won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone

P3 07:05

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P3 07:03

SHOT

Shot missed by Connor McMichael

P3 06:59

Pierre-Luc Dubois won faceoff against Luke Glendening in offensive zone

P3 06:59

Stoppage - Puck Frozen - TV timeout

P3 06:43

SHOT

Rasmus Sandin shot blocked by teammate

P3 06:08

Nic Dowd won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone

P3 06:08

GOAL

Goal scored by Gage Goncalves

2-0

P3 05:35

SHOT

Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh

P3 05:32

SHOT

Shot on goal by Dylan Strome saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

P3 05:22

SHOT

Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Erik Cernak

P3 05:15

Brayden Point won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone

P3 05:15

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P3 05:13

SHOT

Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

P3 04:52

SHOT

J.J. Moser shot blocked by Connor McMichael

P3 04:50

Nick Paul won faceoff against Pierre-Luc Dubois in offensive zone

P3 04:50

Stoppage - Icing

P3 04:37

SHOT

Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov

P3 03:53

Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Pierre-Luc Dubois in defensive zone

P3 03:53

Stoppage - Offside

P3 03:29

Luke Glendening won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone

P3 03:29

Stoppage - Puck in Netting

P3 03:27

SHOT

Shot missed by Rasmus Sandin

P3 02:32

Lars Eller won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone

P3 02:32

Stoppage - Icing

P3 01:13

SHOT

Shot missed by Gage Goncalves

P3 00:16

SHOT

Shot missed by John Carlson

P3 00:07

SHOT

Shot missed by Taylor Raddysh

P3 00:00

Nic Dowd won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone

P2 20:00

End of 2nd Period.

P2 19:58

SHOT

Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin

P2 19:27

Takeaway by Erik Cernak in neutral zone

P2 19:01

SHOT

Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Logan Thompson

P2 18:52

SHOT

Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin

P2 18:10

SHOT

Shot on goal by Matt Roy saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

P2 17:20

SHOT

Rasmus Sandin shot blocked by Mitchell Chaffee

P2 17:15

SHOT

Rasmus Sandin shot blocked by teammate

P2 16:38

SHOT

Shot missed by Connor McMichael

P2 16:09

SHOT

Shot on goal by Tom Wilson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

P2 15:33

SHOT

Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Logan Thompson

P2 15:22

SHOT

Shot missed by Jakob Chychrun

P2 15:12

SHOT

Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Erik Cernak

P2 15:11

Dylan Strome won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone

P2 15:11

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout

P2 15:06

SHOT

Shot on goal by Pierre-Luc Dubois saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

P2 14:56

SHOT

Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Logan Thompson

P2 14:13

SHOT

Shot on goal by Matt Roy saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

P2 13:02

SHOT

Michael Eyssimont shot blocked by Jakob Chychrun

P2 12:28

SHOT

Shot missed by Jakob Chychrun

P2 10:24

SHOT

Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Logan Thompson

P2 10:02

SHOT

Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov

P2 09:38

Luke Glendening won faceoff against Dylan Strome in offensive zone

P2 09:38

Penalty to Connor McMichael 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Nick Perbix)

P2 09:38

Penalty to Nick Perbix 2 minutes for Misconduct

P2 09:38

Stoppage - TV timeout

P2 09:14

SHOT

Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Pierre-Luc Dubois

P2 08:52

SHOT

Shot on goal by Nick Perbix saved by Logan Thompson

P2 08:31

SHOT

Martin Fehervary shot blocked by Victor Hedman

P2 07:55

SHOT

Brayden Point shot blocked by Aliaksei Protas

P2 07:42

SHOT

Shot missed by John Carlson

P2 07:22

SHOT

Shot on goal by Lightning saved by Logan Thompson

P2 07:14

SHOT

Shot on goal by Lightning saved by Logan Thompson

P2 07:09

SHOT

Shot on goal by Capitals saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

P2 06:31

SHOT

Shot missed by Brandon Duhaime

P2 06:04

SHOT

Matt Roy shot blocked by teammate

P2 05:59

SHOT

Shot on goal by Pierre-Luc Dubois saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

P2 05:22

Pierre-Luc Dubois won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone

P2 05:22

Stoppage - Referee or Linesperson

P2 05:12

SHOT

Shot on goal by Taylor Raddysh saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

P2 05:01

Lars Eller won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone

P2 05:01

Stoppage - Offside

P2 03:17

SHOT

Power play - Shot on goal by Pierre-Luc Dubois saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

P2 02:46

SHOT

Power play - Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Erik Cernak

P2 02:42

Power play - Dylan Strome won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone

P2 02:42

Penalty to Jake Guentzel 2 minutes for Slashing (Drawn by John Carlson)

P2 01:57

Brayden Point won faceoff against Nic Dowd in offensive zone

P2 01:57

Stoppage - Puck in Crowd

P2 01:49

Nic Dowd won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone

P2 01:49

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P2 01:47

SHOT

Shot on goal by Nick Perbix saved by Logan Thompson

P2 01:41

SHOT

Shot missed by Gage Goncalves

P2 01:38

SHOT

Emil Lilleberg shot blocked by Martin Fehervary

P2 01:04

SHOT

Shot on goal by Connor McMichael saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

P2 00:00

Power play - Dylan Strome won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone

P1 20:00

End of 1st Period.

P1 19:55

SHOT

Power play - Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Luke Glendening

P1 19:20

SHOT

Power play - Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

P1 18:49

Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone

P1 18:49

Stoppage - Puck Frozen

P1 18:47

Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone

P1 18:47

Penalty to Emil Lilleberg 2 minutes for Holding (Drawn by Lars Eller)

P1 17:47

SHOT

Shot on goal by Victor Hedman saved by Logan Thompson

P1 17:33

SHOT

Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin

P1 17:11

Dylan Strome won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone

P1 17:11

GOAL

Power play - Goal scored by Mitchell Chaffee

1-0

P1 17:09

SHOT

Power play - Shot on goal by Mitchell Chaffee saved by Logan Thompson

P1 17:08

SHOT

Power play - Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Logan Thompson

P1 16:43

Shorthanded - Nic Dowd won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone

P1 16:43

Penalty to Tom Wilson 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Nikita Kucherov)

P1 16:26

SHOT

Martin Fehervary shot blocked by Jake Guentzel

P1 15:55

Luke Glendening won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone

P1 15:55

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout

P1 15:52

SHOT

Shot on goal by Connor McMichael saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

P1 15:17

SHOT

Shot missed by Capitals

P1 14:50

Nic Dowd won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone

P1 14:50

Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout

P1 14:38

Lars Eller won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone

P1 14:38

Stoppage - Icing

P1 14:31

Lars Eller won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone

P1 14:31

Stoppage - Icing

P1 14:13

SHOT

Shot on goal by Ethen Frank saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

P1 14:06

SHOT

Shot missed by Ethen Frank

P1 13:52

SHOT

Shot missed by Ethen Frank

P1 13:17

SHOT

Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Dylan Strome

P1 12:35

Giveaway by Tom Wilson in defensive zone

P1 12:19

Giveaway by Rasmus Sandin in offensive zone

P1 11:18

Shorthanded - Nic Dowd won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone

P1 11:18

Stoppage - Puck in Benches

P1 11:12

SHOT

Power play - Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Logan Thompson

P1 11:00

SHOT

Power play - Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Logan Thompson

P1 10:17

SHOT

Power play - Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Brandon Duhaime

P1 09:55

Shorthanded - Nic Dowd won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone

P1 09:55

Penalty to Pierre-Luc Dubois 2 minutes for Misconduct

P1 09:52

SHOT

Shot on goal by Victor Hedman saved by Logan Thompson

P1 09:19

Giveaway by John Carlson in offensive zone

P1 08:45

SHOT

Shot missed by Trevor van Riemsdyk

P1 07:58

SHOT

Shot on goal by Mitchell Chaffee saved by Logan Thompson

P1 07:19

Nic Dowd won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone

P1 07:19

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P1 07:15

SHOT

Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by teammate

P1 06:47

SHOT

Shot on goal by Pierre-Luc Dubois saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

P1 06:22

Connor McMichael won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone

P1 06:22

Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout

P1 05:40

Lightning challenge (Missed stoppage), call reversed

P1 05:40

Stoppage

P1 05:40

GOAL

Goal scored by Jakob Chychrun assisted by Rasmus Sandin and Dylan Strome

0-1

P1 05:26

SHOT

Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Gage Goncalves

P1 05:25

Nick Paul won faceoff against Lars Eller in neutral zone

P1 05:19

SHOT

Rasmus Sandin shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli

P1 04:09

SHOT

Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Lars Eller saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

P1 03:26

Shorthanded - Lars Eller won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone

P1 03:26

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P1 03:23

SHOT

Power play - Shot missed by Jake Guentzel

P1 02:48

Shorthanded - Nic Dowd won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone

P1 02:48

Penalty to Alex Ovechkin 2 minutes for Hooking (Drawn by Victor Hedman)

P1 01:14

Connor McMichael won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone

P1 01:14

Stoppage

P1 00:42

SHOT

Shot on goal by Mitchell Chaffee saved by Logan Thompson

P1 00:17

Brandon Duhaime credited with hit on Ryan McDonagh in offensive zone

P1 00:00

Nic Dowd won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone

P1 00:00

Game Setup.

Stats

Lightning		STATS		Capitals

19	Shots on Goal	21
38%	Faceoff Win %	62%
3/1	PP Opportunities/PP Goals	3/0
8	Penalty Infraction Mins	8
11	Hits	14
19	Shots Blocked	7
11	Giveaways	16

LightningTB			CapitalsWSH

19	Shots on Goal	21
38%	Faceoff Win %	62%
3/1	PP Opportunities/PP Goals	3/0
8	Penalty Infraction Mins	8
11	Hits	14
19	Shots Blocked	7
11	Giveaways	16

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Lightning vs. Capitals: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

Teams: Lightning vs. Capitals
Date: Saturday, March 1, 2025
Time: 12:30 PM ET
Venue: Capital One Arena

Current Betting Odds

Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
Total (Over/Under): 6
Moneyline Odds: Lightning -105, Capitals -104

Dimers' Win Probabilities

Lightning: 51%
Capitals: 49%

Dimers.com's predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lightning a win probability of 51%, while the Capitals have a win probability of 49%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Capitals in the NHL game at Capital One Arena on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Lightning vs. Capitals predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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