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Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Thunder vs. Mavericks NBA game on October 27, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
101
94
Oct 28, 12:30AM American Airlines Center
Oct 28, 12:30AM American Airlines Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thunder | 28 | 46 | 23 | 0 | 101 |
Mavericks | 24 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 94 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
99%
1%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thunder | 28 | 46 | 23 | 0 | 101 |
Mavericks | 24 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 94 |
Q4 00:14 Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:25 Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:33 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:54 Mavericks makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:10 Thunder misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:25 Mavericks makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:32 Thunder misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:01 D'Angelo Russell misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:17 Thunder misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:34 Anthony Davis misses two point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
Chet Holmgren blocks Mavericks heave shot
Mavericks offensive rebound
End of 4th Quarter.
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 2 of 2
97-94
Mavericks personal foul
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 1 of 2
97-94
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Naji Marshall personal foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
97-94
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
97-94
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, P.J. Washington, Anthony Davis, Naji Marshall)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Instant replay (Challenge: Stands)
Thunder 60 second timeout
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Mavericks challenge timeout
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, Ajay Mitchell, Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
97-94
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
97-94
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Isaiah Hartenstein, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Jaden Hardy, P.J. Washington, Anthony Davis, D'Angelo Russell)
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
97-94
Thunder personal foul
Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, P.J. Washington, Anthony Davis, Naji Marshall)
+1
Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 1 of 1
97-94
Jaden Hardy defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover (bad pass) (P.J. Washington steals)
Jaden Hardy personal foul
Stoppage (Court cleanup)
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
D'Angelo Russell misses three point jump shot
D'Angelo Russell defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Court cleanup)
Jaden Hardy personal foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
Anthony Davis misses two point jump shot
Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound
+2
Isaiah Hartenstein makes two point jump shot
97-94
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Anthony Davis makes two point jump shot (D'Angelo Russell assists)
97-94
Thunder turnover
Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Thunder lineup change (Isaiah Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
Thunder 60 second timeout
+3
Max Christie makes three point jump shot
97-94
Jaden Hardy defensive rebound
Ajay Mitchell misses three point jump shot
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
97-94
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
Jaden Hardy misses three point jump shot
P.J. Washington defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Isaiah Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
+2
Jaden Hardy makes two point jump shot
97-94
Thunder 60 second timeout
Mavericks defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound
Aaron Wiggins misses three point jump shot
Isaiah Hartenstein personal foul (Loose ball) (Anthony Davis draws the foul)
Mavericks defensive rebound
+1
Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 1 of 2
97-94
+1
Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
97-94
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three point jump shot
Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound
Cason Wallace misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Mavericks defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Hartenstein, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
97-94
Max Christie personal foul (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)
Instant replay (Challenge)
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
Chet Holmgren turnover (offensive foul)
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Jaden Hardy misses two point jump shot
Cason Wallace personal foul (Cooper Flagg draws the foul)
Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Jaden Hardy, P.J. Washington, Anthony Davis, D'Angelo Russell)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
97-94
Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
Anthony Davis misses three point jump shot
Ajay Mitchell offensive rebound
Thunder turnover
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Ajay Mitchell personal foul
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
97-94
+1
Jaden Hardy makes regular free throw 1 of 1
97-94
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Aaron Wiggins misses two point driving layup
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Thunder turnover
Aaron Wiggins personal foul
+1
P.J. Washington makes regular free throw 1 of 2
97-94
+1
P.J. Washington makes regular free throw 2 of 2
97-94
Isaiah Hartenstein personal foul
Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Jaden Hardy, P.J. Washington, Anthony Davis)
+2
Isaiah Hartenstein makes two point cutting dunk (Chet Holmgren assists)
97-94
Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
Cooper Flagg misses two point running pullup jump shot
Ajay Mitchell turnover (Cooper Flagg steals)
Ajay Mitchell offensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Mavericks personal foul
Thunder defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
97-94
Klay Thompson turnover
Chet Holmgren personal foul (Jaden Hardy draws the foul)
Chet Holmgren turnover (offensive foul)
End of 3rd Quarter.
Mavericks offensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Mavericks lineup change (Cooper Flagg, Klay Thompson, Jaden Hardy, P.J. Washington, Anthony Davis)
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell, Chet Holmgren)
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, Ajay Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylin Williams)
Mavericks personal foul
+1
Jaylin Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
97-94
+1
Jaylin Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
97-94
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
97-94
Jaylin Williams turnover
D'Angelo Russell turnover
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
97-94
Mavericks turnover
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
97-94
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
97-94
P.J. Washington offensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
D'Angelo Russell personal foul
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
97-94
+1
Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 1 of 1
97-94
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
97-94
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
97-94
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
97-94
Mavericks personal foul
+1
Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
97-94
+1
Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
97-94
Mavericks personal foul
Thunder offensive rebound
Thunder lineup change (Aaron Wiggins, Ajay Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylin Williams, Brooks Barnhizer)
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
97-94
Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Mavericks lineup change (Cooper Flagg, Jaden Hardy, P.J. Washington, D'Angelo Russell, Naji Marshall)
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Anthony Davis personal foul (Loose ball) (Isaiah Hartenstein draws the foul)
Thunder offensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
D'Angelo Russell misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Mavericks offensive rebound
+1
D'Angelo Russell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
97-94
Thunder personal foul
Thunder lineup change (Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
D'Angelo Russell defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
72-58
Thunder personal foul
+1
Naji Marshall makes regular free throw 1 of 2
97-94
+1
Naji Marshall makes regular free throw 2 of 2
97-94
Mavericks lineup change (Cooper Flagg, Jaden Hardy, Anthony Davis, D'Angelo Russell, Naji Marshall)
Mavericks violation
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Thunder lineup change (Aaron Wiggins, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylin Williams)
Mavericks lineup change (Cooper Flagg, Klay Thompson, Anthony Davis, D'Angelo Russell, Naji Marshall)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
97-94
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Chet Holmgren blocks P.J. Washington's two point driving floating jump shot
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point jump shot
97-94
Anthony Davis offensive rebound
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
97-94
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Thunder turnover
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
97-94
Max Christie personal foul (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)
Stoppage (Court cleanup)
Mavericks lineup change (Klay Thompson, P.J. Washington, Anthony Davis, D'Angelo Russell, Naji Marshall)
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Klay Thompson misses three point jump shot
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
P.J. Washington misses three point jump shot
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
97-94
+2
Klay Thompson makes two point jump shot (D'Angelo Russell assists)
97-94
Jump ball. Anthony Davis (Max Christie gains possession)
Instant replay (Challenge: Ruling Overturned)
Mavericks offensive rebound
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander blocks Max Christie's two point driving layup
Thunder personal foul
Thunder 60 second timeout
Thunder personal foul
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
97-94
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Klay Thompson, P.J. Washington, Anthony Davis, D'Angelo Russell)
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylin Williams)
Mavericks turnover
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
97-94
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
97-94
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
97-94
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
97-94
Mavericks personal foul
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 1 of 2
97-94
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 2 of 2
97-94
Mavericks turnover
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
97-94
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
97-94
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
50-44
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Anthony Davis misses two point jump shot
Max Christie defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Cason Wallace offensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Anthony Davis makes two point fadeaway jump shot
50-44
Thunder personal foul
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder offensive rebound
End of 1st Half.
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Isaiah Hartenstein, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Klay Thompson, P.J. Washington, Anthony Davis)
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
P.J. Washington defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
D'Angelo Russell misses three point pullup jump shot
Chet Holmgren misses two point running finger roll layup
Mavericks defensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
Thunder lineup change (Aaron Wiggins, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylin Williams)
Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
D'Angelo Russell misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
74-59
Thunder personal foul
+1
Naji Marshall makes regular free throw 1 of 3
72-59
+1
Naji Marshall makes regular free throw 2 of 3
72-59
Thunder lineup change (Isaiah Hartenstein, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Brooks Barnhizer)
Mavericks lineup change (Cooper Flagg, P.J. Washington, Anthony Davis, D'Angelo Russell, Naji Marshall)
+1
Naji Marshall makes regular free throw 3 of 3
72-59
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
46-39
Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
72-59
Brooks Barnhizer defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Mavericks defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder lineup change (Isaiah Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Brooks Barnhizer)
Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, P.J. Washington, Anthony Davis, D'Angelo Russell, Naji Marshall)
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
72-59
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Isaiah Hartenstein misses two point cutting layup
Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Klay Thompson defensive rebound
Aaron Wiggins misses three point pullup jump shot
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
Cooper Flagg misses three point jump shot
Klay Thompson defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
72-59
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
72-59
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
72-59
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Anthony Davis offensive rebound
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
72-59
Thunder 60 second timeout
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell, Luguentz Dort)
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Anthony Davis makes two point jump shot
72-59
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Chet Holmgren misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Klay Thompson, Anthony Davis, Naji Marshall)
Chet Holmgren misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Mavericks personal foul
Thunder offensive rebound
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Chet Holmgren turnover (Cooper Flagg steals)
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
50-44
+2
Cooper Flagg makes two point layup
36-30
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
50-44
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
Klay Thompson defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
+1
Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 1 of 2
50-44
+1
Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
50-44
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
48-42
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Klay Thompson, Jaden Hardy, Anthony Davis)
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
Mavericks offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Chet Holmgren blocks Naji Marshall's two point jump shot
Thunder violation
Naji Marshall offensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
48-42
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
48-42
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
48-42
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
Cooper Flagg misses two point layup
Mavericks offensive rebound
Mavericks lineup change (Cooper Flagg, Klay Thompson, P.J. Washington, D'Angelo Russell, Naji Marshall)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Naji Marshall misses three point jump shot
Ajay Mitchell turnover (out of bounds step)
Caleb Martin turnover (lost ball) (Ajay Mitchell steals)
Caleb Martin defensive rebound
Chet Holmgren misses three point jump shot
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
Caleb Martin misses three point jump shot
End of 1st Quarter.
Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, Ajay Mitchell, Chet Holmgren, Jaylin Williams)
Mavericks offensive rebound
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 25 | A. Mitchell | 17 | 7 | 1 |
| G | 2 | S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 23 | 4 | 8 |
| F | 7 | C. Holmgren | 18 | 11 | 2 |
| G | 22 | C. Wallace | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| F | 5 | L. Dort | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 0 | M. Christie | 14 | 2 | 0 |
| F | 25 | P. Washington | 15 | 9 | 3 |
| G | 32 | C. Flagg | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| C | 3 | A. Davis | 26 | 11 | 3 |
| F | 13 | N. Marshall | 9 | 4 | 0 |
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Thunder vs. Mavericks: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Thunder vs. Mavericks
- Date: Monday, October 27, 2025
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Thunder favored at -8.5
- Total (Over/Under): 225.5
- Moneyline Odds: Thunder -360, Mavericks +310
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Thunder: 75%
- Mavericks: 25%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Thunder 117-109 Mavericks.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Thunder a win probability of 75%, while the Mavericks have a win probability of 25%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Mavericks in the NBA game at American Airlines Center on Tuesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Thunder vs. Mavericks predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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