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Rockets vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Rockets vs. Thunder NBA game on October 21, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
124
125
Oct 21, 11:30PM Paycom Center
Oct 21, 11:30PM Paycom Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rockets | 30 | 27 | 22 | 25 | 124 |
Thunder | 27 | 24 | 24 | 29 | 125 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
30%
70%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rockets | 30 | 27 | 22 | 25 | 124 |
Thunder | 27 | 24 | 24 | 29 | 125 |
OT2 00:00 Rockets misses two point jump shot
OT2 00:11 Rockets makes two point jump shot
OT2 00:24 Rockets misses three point jump shot
OT2 00:59 Thunder makes two point jump shot
OT2 1:15 Rockets makes two point jump shot
OT2 1:32 Thunder makes three point jump shot
OT2 1:45 Thunder misses three point jump shot
OT2 1:53 Rockets misses two point jump shot
OT2 1:54 Rockets misses two point jump shot
OT2 2:28 Rockets makes two point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
End of 2nd OT.
Rockets personal foul
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
124-124
Rockets lineup change (Steven Adams, Tari Eason, Josh Okogie, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
124-125
Rockets 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Steven Adams, Tari Eason, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.)
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
124-123
Thunder 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Tari Eason, Josh Okogie, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Jabari Smith Jr. offensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets personal foul
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Thunder offensive rebound
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
122-123
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Steven Adams, Tari Eason, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Rockets 60 second timeout
Rockets turnover
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
122-122
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
121-120
Thunder personal foul
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 1
122-120
Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Jaylin Williams)
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
119-120
Cason Wallace offensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets turnover
Rockets offensive rebound
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Rockets personal foul
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
119-117
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses regular free throw 2 of 2
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
119-116
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Cason Wallace offensive rebound
Rockets personal foul
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets personal foul
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Thunder offensive rebound
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
117-116
Thunder personal foul
+1
Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 1 of 2
116-115
+1
Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 2 of 2
117-115
Thunder turnover
Rockets turnover
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Rockets personal foul
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
End of 1st OT.
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Reed Sheppard, Steven Adams, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Isaiah Hartenstein (Jabari Smith Jr. gains possession)
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Rockets personal foul
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Tari Eason, Josh Okogie, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
115-115
Thunder 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Steven Adams, Tari Eason, Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Reed Sheppard, Steven Adams, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Josh Okogie defensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
+1
Josh Okogie makes regular free throw 1 of 2
112-115
Thunder lineup change (Isaiah Hartenstein, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace)
+1
Josh Okogie makes regular free throw 2 of 2
113-115
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Rockets turnover
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
111-115
Thunder personal foul
Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Rockets offensive rebound
+1
Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 2 of 2
111-112
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
110-112
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
+1
Reed Sheppard makes regular free throw 1 of 2
107-112
Reed Sheppard misses regular free throw 2 of 2
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point jump shot
106-112
Rockets violation
Rockets 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Reed Sheppard, Josh Okogie, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.)
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
106-110
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
104-110
Rockets personal foul
Thunder 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Josh Okogie, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
104-107
Cason Wallace offensive rebound
Rockets personal foul
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Rockets turnover
Rockets offensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
End of 4th Quarter.
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Steven Adams, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Thunder lineup change (Isaiah Hartenstein, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren)
(Jabari Smith Jr. gains possession)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
104-104
Rockets 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren)
Thunder personal foul
Kevin Durant misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Rockets offensive rebound
Thunder lineup change (Isaiah Hartenstein, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren)
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr.)
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 2 of 2
104-102
Steven Adams defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
103-102
Rockets defensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
Thunder 60 second timeout
Instant replay
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
101-102
Rockets personal foul
Instant replay
Rockets 60 second timeout
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets turnover
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
101-100
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
101-97
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
99-97
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
99-95
Rockets 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Steven Adams, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren)
Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
97-95
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Rockets turnover
Rockets personal foul
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
97-92
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
97-93
Thunder lineup change (Isaiah Hartenstein, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren)
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
97-91
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
95-91
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
95-89
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets personal foul
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
93-88
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Josh Okogie, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
93-89
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
93-87
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
91-87
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
Thunder 60 second timeout
Thunder lineup change (Isaiah Hartenstein, Aaron Wiggins, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace)
Josh Okogie misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Rockets offensive rebound
+1
Josh Okogie makes regular free throw 2 of 2
91-85
Rockets defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
89-85
Thunder personal foul
Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Josh Okogie, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Thunder lineup change (Isaiah Hartenstein, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace)
+1
Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 1 of 1
90-85
Thunder turnover
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets personal foul
+1
Isaiah Hartenstein makes regular free throw 1 of 2
87-84
+1
Isaiah Hartenstein makes regular free throw 2 of 2
87-85
Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Josh Okogie, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Rockets personal foul
Alperen Sengun turnover (offensive foul)
Thunder lineup change (Isaiah Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
87-83
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
87-81
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
84-81
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
84-79
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets personal foul
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
82-79
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
82-77
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
79-77
Alex Caruso defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Jaylin Williams offensive rebound
End of 3rd Quarter.
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Steven Adams, Josh Okogie, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Thunder lineup change (Isaiah Hartenstein, Aaron Wiggins, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren)
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Rockets turnover
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
+1
Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 1 of 2
78-75
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Josh Okogie, Alperen Sengun)
+1
Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 2 of 2
79-75
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
77-75
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
Thunder personal foul
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
77-73
Thunder lineup change (Aaron Wiggins, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren, Jaylin Williams)
Rockets defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
76-73
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
73-73
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
73-70
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets 60 second timeout
Thunder lineup change (Aaron Wiggins, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren)
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Reed Sheppard, Clint Capela, Tari Eason, Alperen Sengun)
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Reed Sheppard offensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
71-70
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
71-67
Rockets turnover
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
+1
Clint Capela makes regular free throw 1 of 2
70-65
+1
Clint Capela makes regular free throw 2 of 2
71-65
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
69-65
Rockets 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Clint Capela, Tari Eason)
Steven Adams offensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
69-63
Steven Adams offensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
67-63
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Steven Adams defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Luguentz Dort offensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Rockets turnover
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets personal foul
Cason Wallace misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Thunder offensive rebound
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Steven Adams, Tari Eason)
+1
Cason Wallace makes regular free throw 2 of 2
67-61
Thunder lineup change (Isaiah Hartenstein, Aaron Wiggins, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace)
Rockets turnover
Steven Adams offensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Steven Adams defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Jump ball. (Thunder gains possession)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Rockets personal foul
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
67-60
Jump ball. Luguentz Dort (Steven Adams gains possession)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
65-60
Thunder personal foul
+1
Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 1 of 2
64-57
Thunder lineup change (Isaiah Hartenstein, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren)
+1
Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 2 of 2
65-57
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
63-57
Thunder defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
63-55
Rockets turnover
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
63-53
Rockets personal foul
Amen Thompson turnover (offensive foul)
Steven Adams defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Thunder turnover
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
63-51
Thunder 60 second timeout
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder turnover
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets turnover
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+2
Kevin Durant makes two point jump shot
61-51
Steven Adams defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
59-51
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
57-50
Rockets personal foul
Instant replay
+1
Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 1 of 1
57-51
Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Steven Adams, Tari Eason, Josh Okogie, Alperen Sengun)
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
End of 1st Half.
Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren)
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Steven Adams, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Rockets personal foul
Thunder violation
Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Jaylin Williams)
Thunder personal foul
+1
Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 1 of 2
56-47
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Josh Okogie, Alperen Sengun)
Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Jaylin Williams)
+1
Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 2 of 2
57-47
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
55-47
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
53-47
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Thunder offensive rebound
Instant replay (Challenge)
Rockets challenge timeout
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Steven Adams, Tari Eason, Alperen Sengun)
Tari Eason turnover (lost ball) (Isaiah Hartenstein steals)
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | 17 | T. Eason | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| F | 10 | J. Smith Jr. | 16 | 5 | 0 |
| F | 28 | A. Sengun | 39 | 11 | 7 |
| C | 12 | S. Adams | 4 | 13 | 3 |
| G | 15 | R. Sheppard | 9 | 2 | 4 |
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 22 | C. Wallace | 14 | 7 | 5 |
| F | 5 | L. Dort | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| F | 6 | J. Williams | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| G | 9 | A. Caruso | 8 | 2 | 3 |
| G | 2 | S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 35 | 5 | 5 |
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Rockets vs. Thunder: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Rockets vs. Thunder
- Date: Tuesday, October 21, 2025
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Paycom Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Thunder favored at -6.5
- Total (Over/Under): 225.5
- Moneyline Odds: Rockets +205, Thunder -245
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Rockets: 28%
- Thunder: 72%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Rockets 109-116 Thunder.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Rockets a win probability of 28%, while the Thunder have a win probability of 72%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Rockets in the NBA game at Paycom Center on Tuesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Rockets vs. Thunder predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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