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Heat vs. Rockets Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Heat vs. Rockets NBA game on March 21, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
122
123
Mar 22, 12AM Toyota Center
Mar 22, 12AM Toyota Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 29 | 34 | 59 | 0 | 122 |
Rockets | 32 | 32 | 59 | 0 | 123 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
17%
83%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 29 | 34 | 59 | 0 | 122 |
Rockets | 32 | 32 | 59 | 0 | 123 |
Q4 00:00 Amen Thompson makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:02 Kevin Durant misses two point pullup jump shot
Q4 00:04 Heat makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:12 Rockets makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:46 Pelle Larsson makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:14 Simone Fontecchio makes three point jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)
Q4 1:23 Reed Sheppard misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:39 Bam Adebayo misses two point pullup jump shot
Q4 1:45 Tyler Herro misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:20 Heat misses three point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Instant replay (Request: Ruling Upheld)
+2
Amen Thompson makes two point jump shot
122-123
End of 4th Quarter.
Kevin Durant misses two point pullup jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
119-121
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive goaltending violation
Instant replay (Request: Ruling Upheld)
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Simone Fontecchio, Kel'el Ware)
Rockets 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Tari Eason turnover (bad pass) (Davion Mitchell steals)
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
122-123
Rockets personal foul
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
122-123
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr., Aaron Holiday)
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
122-123
Heat 60 second timeout
Bam Adebayo kicked ball violation
+2
Pelle Larsson makes two point jump shot
118-119
Amen Thompson turnover
+3
Simone Fontecchio makes three point jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)
118-119
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
Reed Sheppard misses three point jump shot
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Bam Adebayo misses two point pullup jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Tyler Herro misses two point jump shot
Reed Sheppard personal foul (Davion Mitchell draws the foul)
Rockets turnover
Reed Sheppard defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Tyler Herro defensive rebound
Amen Thompson misses two point tip layup
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Alperen Sengun misses two point jump shot
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Reed Sheppard personal foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)
Bam Adebayo misses regular free throw 2 of 2
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
122-123
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr.)
+2
Alperen Sengun makes two point turnaround hook shot (Aaron Holiday assists)
118-119
+3
Davion Mitchell makes three point jump shot (Tyler Herro assists)
113-119
+3
Kevin Durant makes three point jump shot (Reed Sheppard assists)
113-119
Rockets defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Reed Sheppard blocks Tyler Herro's three point pullup jump shot
Pelle Larsson turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
Tyler Herro defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Davion Mitchell turnover (Kevin Durant steals)
Alperen Sengun offensive foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)
Alperen Sengun turnover (offensive foul)
Pelle Larsson personal foul (Alperen Sengun draws the foul)
Alperen Sengun blocks Pelle Larsson's two point jump shot
Pelle Larsson turnover (offensive foul)
Instant replay (Request)
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Aaron Holiday)
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
113-119
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
118-119
Rockets violation
+2
Aaron Holiday makes two point jump shot
113-119
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
+2
Bam Adebayo makes two point jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)
113-119
Rockets personal foul
Bam Adebayo misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Alperen Sengun turnover
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Aaron Holiday)
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
118-119
+3
Simone Fontecchio makes three point jump shot
105-106
+3
Aaron Holiday makes three point jump shot (Reed Sheppard assists)
102-106
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. misses three point jump shot
Myron Gardner personal foul (Alperen Sengun draws the foul)
Rockets defensive rebound
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Simone Fontecchio)
Davion Mitchell misses three point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
105-106
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Davion Mitchell misses two point jump shot
Davion Mitchell defensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. misses two point jump shot
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Tyler Herro misses three point pullup jump shot
+3
Reed Sheppard makes three point jump shot (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)
105-106
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+3
Jabari Smith Jr. makes three point running jump shot (Aaron Holiday assists)
105-106
Heat 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Myron Gardner, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro)
Myron Gardner turnover
+3
Jabari Smith Jr. makes three point jump shot (Reed Sheppard assists)
102-95
Heat violation
Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Aaron Holiday)
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat personal foul
Josh Okogie misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Rockets offensive rebound
+1
Josh Okogie makes regular free throw 2 of 2
122-123
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
102-91
+2
Amen Thompson makes two point driving layup (Alperen Sengun assists)
105-106
+2
Bam Adebayo makes two point jump shot
105-106
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
105-106
Rockets personal foul (Bam Adebayo draws the foul)
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 2
122-123
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 2 of 2
122-123
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
End of 3rd Quarter.
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr., Aaron Holiday)
Heat lineup change (Myron Gardner, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis)
Kevin Durant misses two point jump shot
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Jabari Smith Jr. misses two point jump shot
+2
Tyler Herro makes two point jump shot (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)
113-119
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
Amen Thompson misses two point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
122-123
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+3
Tyler Herro makes three point jump shot
105-106
+2
Amen Thompson makes two point jump shot
105-106
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Kevin Durant misses three point jump shot
Heat personal foul
Dorian Finney-Smith offensive rebound
Amen Thompson misses two point jump shot
Myron Gardner misses three point jump shot
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jae'Sean Tate, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason)
Heat 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Myron Gardner, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Kasparas Jakucionis, Simone Fontecchio)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Kevin Durant turnover
Tari Eason offensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+3
Myron Gardner makes three point jump shot
88-85
Tyler Herro defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Reed Sheppard defensive rebound
Bam Adebayo misses two point tip layup
Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
Davion Mitchell misses three point jump shot
Myron Gardner defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+2
Tyler Herro makes two point floating jump shot (Myron Gardner assists)
105-106
Jae'Sean Tate personal foul
Rockets personal foul
Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
Davion Mitchell misses three point jump shot
Rockets personal foul
Myron Gardner offensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Kevin Durant misses two point pullup jump shot
Simone Fontecchio turnover
+2
Tari Eason makes two point jump shot (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)
83-85
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Davion Mitchell misses three point jump shot
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
118-119
Pelle Larsson personal foul (Jabari Smith Jr. draws the foul)
Heat lineup change (Myron Gardner, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Simone Fontecchio)
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Tari Eason misses two point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Jae'Sean Tate, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
Heat lineup change (Myron Gardner, Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Simone Fontecchio)
Rockets 60 second timeout
+3
Simone Fontecchio makes three point jump shot (Tyler Herro assists)
105-106
+2
Alperen Sengun makes two point putback layup
83-80
Kevin Durant misses three point fadeaway jump shot
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
105-106
Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
118-119
+3
Tyler Herro makes three point jump shot
118-119
Alperen Sengun turnover
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
70-74
Reed Sheppard shooting foul (Pelle Larsson draws the foul)
+1
Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 1 of 1
118-119
+2
Alperen Sengun makes two point jump shot (Reed Sheppard assists)
105-106
+2
Tyler Herro makes two point jump shot
105-106
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
70-74
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Kevin Durant misses three point jump shot
Bam Adebayo personal foul (Alperen Sengun draws the foul)
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Bam Adebayo misses two point driving hook shot
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
88-85
+2
Davion Mitchell makes two point driving finger roll layup
70-69
+2
Alperen Sengun makes two point cutting layup (Reed Sheppard assists)
70-74
+3
Bam Adebayo makes three point jump shot (Pelle Larsson assists)
88-85
Rockets turnover
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+3
Kevin Durant makes three point jump shot (Reed Sheppard assists)
70-74
+2
Tyler Herro makes two point jump shot
65-64
Tyler Herro defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
End of 1st Half.
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr.)
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Simone Fontecchio)
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
63-64
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
63-64
Davion Mitchell offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
63-64
+2
Jabari Smith Jr. makes two point jump shot
63-64
+2
Tyler Herro makes two point jump shot
63-64
+2
Alperen Sengun makes two point turnaround hook shot (Reed Sheppard assists)
63-64
Jabari Smith Jr. offensive rebound
Reed Sheppard misses three point jump shot
Heat personal foul
Rockets offensive rebound
+1
Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 1 of 2
63-64
Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Heat lineup change (Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Kasparas Jakucionis, Simone Fontecchio)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
63-64
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
63-64
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
63-64
Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
Tyler Herro misses three point jump shot
Rockets turnover
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr.)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
63-64
Rockets personal foul
+1
Bam Adebayo makes regular free throw 1 of 1
63-64
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat 60 second timeout
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
63-64
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Reed Sheppard makes two point jump shot
55-58
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
63-64
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Pelle Larsson personal foul
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
63-64
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 2 of 2
63-64
Heat lineup change (Myron Gardner, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Simone Fontecchio)
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Amen Thompson personal foul
+1
Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
45-46
Pelle Larsson misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Heat offensive rebound
Pelle Larsson misses two point driving layup
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Kevin Durant makes two point jump shot
45-46
+2
Davion Mitchell makes two point driving layup
45-46
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Myron Gardner personal foul (Dorian Finney-Smith draws the foul)
+1
Dorian Finney-Smith makes regular free throw 1 of 2
45-46
Dorian Finney-Smith misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Simone Fontecchio)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
45-46
Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
Tyler Herro misses two point pullup jump shot
Myron Gardner personal foul (Reed Sheppard draws the foul)
+1
Reed Sheppard makes regular free throw 2 of 2
41-43
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
+1
Reed Sheppard makes regular free throw 1 of 2
45-46
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Tyler Herro misses two point driving floating jump shot
Tyler Herro defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Heat personal foul
Rockets 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Alperen Sengun makes two point driving floating bank jump shot
41-43
Rockets personal foul
+1
Tyler Herro makes regular free throw 1 of 2
40-41
+1
Tyler Herro makes regular free throw 2 of 2
41-43
Heat lineup change (Myron Gardner, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Simone Fontecchio)
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Heat violation
Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Simone Fontecchio)
+2
Pelle Larsson makes two point jump shot
39-41
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Nikola Jovic personal foul
+1
Jabari Smith Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 2
37-41
Jabari Smith Jr. misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis, Simone Fontecchio)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
37-40
+2
Alperen Sengun makes two point driving layup
37-40
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
Rockets personal foul
Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Aaron Holiday, Tari Eason)
Heat lineup change (Nikola Jovic, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis)
Heat misses three point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Other)
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
35-38
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
32-37
Heat personal foul
+1
Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 1 of 1
32-38
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
32-35
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
32-32
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Heat violation
Dorian Finney-Smith offensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Reed Sheppard offensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
29-32
Instant replay
End of 1st Quarter.
Heat lineup change (Nikola Jovic, Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis, Dru Smith)
Rockets lineup change (Dorian Finney-Smith, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Aaron Holiday)
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat offensive rebound
Jump ball. (Dru Smith gains possession)
Jabari Smith Jr. shooting foul (Pelle Larsson draws the foul)
Rockets 60 second timeout
Instant replay
Heat misses two point jump shot
Rockets challenge timeout
Heat personal foul
+1
Jabari Smith Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 2
29-29
+1
Jabari Smith Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 2
29-30
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis, Simone Fontecchio, Dru Smith)
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat personal foul
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 1 of 2
29-27
+1
Kevin Durant makes regular free throw 2 of 2
29-28
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis, Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith)
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr.)
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
29-26
Heat turnover
Rockets turnover
Heat violation
Heat lineup change (Myron Gardner, Bam Adebayo, Kasparas Jakucionis, Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
29-23
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
27-23
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
27-20
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
25-20
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
25-17
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
23-17
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
23-15
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Heat personal foul
+1
Tari Eason makes regular free throw 1 of 2
23-12
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason)
Heat lineup change (Myron Gardner, Tyler Herro, Simone Fontecchio, Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith)
+1
Tari Eason makes regular free throw 2 of 2
23-13
Reed Sheppard defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Tyler Herro defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Heat turnover
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
23-11
Rockets 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Myron Gardner, Davion Mitchell, Tyler Herro, Simone Fontecchio, Kel'el Ware)
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
Rockets turnover
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
21-11
Pelle Larsson offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets defensive rebound
Rockets 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
Heat misses three point jump shot
Rockets turnover
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
18-11
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
15-11
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets personal foul
Pelle Larsson misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Heat offensive rebound
+1
Pelle Larsson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
13-11
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
12-10
Heat personal foul
+1
Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 1 of 1
12-11
Rockets lineup change (Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
12-8
Pelle Larsson offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Pelle Larsson offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
9-8
Rockets personal foul
+1
Tyler Herro makes regular free throw 1 of 1
10-8
Rockets turnover
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
7-8
Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Heat personal foul
+2
Simone Fontecchio makes two point jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)
5-8
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 14 | T. Herro | 25 | 6 | 4 |
| F | 0 | S. Fontecchio | 21 | 3 | 3 |
| F | 9 | P. Larsson | 19 | 5 | 3 |
| C | 7 | K. Ware | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| C | 13 | B. Adebayo | 32 | 21 | 4 |
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 1 | A. Thompson | 24 | 18 | 4 |
| C | 28 | A. Sengun | 19 | 12 | 3 |
| F | 7 | K. Durant | 27 | 3 | 3 |
| G | 15 | R. Sheppard | 23 | 2 | 14 |
| F | 10 | J. Smith Jr. | 13 | 4 | 4 |
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Heat vs. Rockets: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Heat vs. Rockets
- Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Toyota Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Rockets favored at -2.5
- Total (Over/Under): 241.5
- Moneyline Odds: Heat +127, Rockets -132
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Heat: 40%
- Rockets: 60%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Heat 113-116 Rockets.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Heat a win probability of 40%, while the Rockets have a win probability of 60%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Rockets are more likely to beat the Heat in the NBA game at Toyota Center on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Heat vs. Rockets predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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