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Rockets vs. Heat Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Rockets vs. Heat NBA game on February 28, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
105
115
Feb 28, 8:30PM Kaseya Center
Feb 28, 8:30PM Kaseya Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rockets | 28 | 24 | 31 | 22 | 105 |
Heat | 32 | 19 | 34 | 30 | 115 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
42%
58%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rockets | 28 | 24 | 31 | 22 | 105 |
Heat | 32 | 19 | 34 | 30 | 115 |
Q2 9:43 Rockets makes two point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
Heat 60 second timeout
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat 60 second timeout
Heat personal foul
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins)
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins)
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
105-115
Heat personal foul
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith)
Rockets turnover
Instant replay
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins)
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Tari Eason)
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins)
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins)
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Clint Capela, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Tari Eason)
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Clint Capela, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Tari Eason)
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Clint Capela, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Tari Eason)
Rockets lineup change (Reed Sheppard, Clint Capela, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Tari Eason)
Bam Adebayo turnover
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins)
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 30 | C. Capela | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| G | 20 | J. Okogie | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| F | 27 | I. Crawford | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| F | 2 | D. Finney-Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| G | 0 | A. Holiday | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 7 | K. Ware | 13 | 15 | 1 |
| F | 9 | P. Larsson | 20 | 4 | 4 |
| C | 13 | B. Adebayo | 24 | 11 | 1 |
| G | 14 | T. Herro | 18 | 2 | 3 |
| F | 22 | A. Wiggins | 12 | 6 | 4 |
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Rockets vs. Heat: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Rockets vs. Heat
- Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026
- Time: 3:30 PM ET
- Venue: Kaseya Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Rockets favored at -2.5
- Total (Over/Under): 226.5
- Moneyline Odds: Rockets -135, Heat +120
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Rockets: 60%
- Heat: 40%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Rockets 115-112 Heat.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Rockets a win probability of 60%, while the Heat have a win probability of 40%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Rockets are more likely to beat the Heat in the NBA game at Kaseya Center on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Rockets vs. Heat predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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