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Warriors vs. Rockets Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Warriors vs. Rockets NBA game on May 4, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
103
89
May 5, 12:30AM Toyota Center
May 5, 12:30AM Toyota Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Warriors | 23 | 28 | 19 | 33 | 103 |
Rockets | 19 | 20 | 23 | 27 | 89 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
>99%
<1%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Warriors | 23 | 28 | 19 | 33 | 103 |
Rockets | 19 | 20 | 23 | 27 | 89 |
Q4 00:15 Rockets makes three point jump shot
Q4 00:19 Warriors makes three point jump shot
Q4 00:36 Rockets misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:39 Rockets misses two point jump shot
Q4 00:48 Rockets makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:55 Warriors makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:59 Rockets makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:07 Warriors makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:12 Rockets makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:36 Rockets makes three point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
Warriors 60 second timeout
Warriors lineup change (Quinten Post, Gui Santos, Jonathan Kuminga, Pat Spencer, Trayce Jackson-Davis)
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
103-89
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
103-86
Buddy Hield defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets personal foul
+1
Stephen Curry makes regular free throw 1 of 2
99-86
+1
Stephen Curry makes regular free throw 2 of 2
100-86
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
98-86
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
98-84
Rockets personal foul
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
96-84
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
96-81
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
94-81
Warriors turnover
Warriors 60 second timeout
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
94-79
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
94-76
Warriors turnover
Rockets turnover
Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Other)
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
94-74
Stephen Curry defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
91-74
Rockets turnover
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
88-74
Rockets personal foul
Instant replay
+1
Jimmy Butler III makes clear path free throw 1 of 2
85-74
+1
Jimmy Butler III makes clear path free throw 2 of 2
86-74
Rockets turnover
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
84-74
Jimmy Butler III defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Fred VanVleet defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Rockets personal foul
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
82-74
Fred VanVleet defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
Warriors personal foul
Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Rockets offensive rebound
Alperen Sengun misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Fred VanVleet defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Rockets personal foul
Warriors personal foul
+1
Dillon Brooks makes regular free throw 1 of 2
82-71
+1
Dillon Brooks makes regular free throw 2 of 2
82-72
Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Fred VanVleet, Alperen Sengun)
Fred VanVleet defensive rebound
Buddy Hield offensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Buddy Hield defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Stephen Curry defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
82-70
Stephen Curry defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
80-70
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
77-70
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
77-68
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
75-68
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Jalen Green defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Buddy Hield, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III)
Warriors 60 second timeout
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
75-66
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Warriors personal foul
+1
Jalen Green makes regular free throw 1 of 2
75-63
+1
Jalen Green makes regular free throw 2 of 2
75-64
Rockets 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Steven Adams, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Fred VanVleet, Alperen Sengun)
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
75-62
Kevon Looney defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
72-62
Stephen Curry defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets misses three point jump shot
End of 3rd Quarter.
Rockets offensive rebound
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Buddy Hield, Stephen Curry, Kevon Looney)
Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr., Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun)
Steven Adams defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
Jimmy Butler III defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
70-62
Warriors personal foul
+1
Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
68-61
+1
Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
68-62
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody)
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
68-60
Moses Moody defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
66-60
Jimmy Butler III defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Warriors 60 second timeout
Warriors lineup change (Draymond Green, Buddy Hield, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody)
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
63-60
Steven Adams offensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Rockets turnover
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Jimmy Butler III defensive rebound
Warriors personal foul
Tari Eason misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Rockets offensive rebound
Tari Eason misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Steven Adams, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr., Fred VanVleet)
Fred VanVleet offensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
63-57
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Warriors personal foul
+1
Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
61-56
+1
Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
61-57
Warriors misses two point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
61-55
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
61-53
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
58-53
Warriors 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Steven Adams, Tari Eason, Dillon Brooks, Fred VanVleet)
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Jonathan Kuminga, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Kevon Looney)
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
58-51
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
58-49
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
56-51
Rockets personal foul
Alperen Sengun turnover (offensive foul)
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets personal foul
Dillon Brooks turnover (offensive foul)
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets 60 second timeout
Instant replay
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
56-49
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Warriors turnover
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
56-47
Warriors 60 second timeout
Warriors turnover
Warriors personal foul
+1
Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 1 of 2
56-44
+1
Alperen Sengun makes regular free throw 2 of 2
56-45
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
56-43
Draymond Green defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Rockets personal foul
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
54-43
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
54-41
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
53-39
Rockets personal foul
+1
Jimmy Butler III makes regular free throw 1 of 1
54-39
Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Jalen Green defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Rockets personal foul
Stephen Curry defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Stephen Curry defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Warriors offensive rebound
End of 1st Half.
Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Fred VanVleet, Alperen Sengun)
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Steven Adams defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
51-39
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
51-37
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
48-37
Steven Adams defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Jimmy Butler III defensive rebound
Warriors personal foul
+1
Steven Adams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
48-35
Steven Adams misses regular free throw 2 of 2
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
48-34
Warriors personal foul
Draymond Green turnover (offensive foul)
Rockets personal foul
Warriors personal foul
Instant replay
Warriors personal foul
+1
Fred VanVleet makes technical free throw 1 of 1
45-34
Steven Adams offensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
45-33
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Fred VanVleet offensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
45-31
Rockets turnover
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
42-31
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
39-31
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
39-29
Rockets 60 second timeout
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Buddy Hield, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III)
Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Steven Adams, Dillon Brooks, Fred VanVleet, Alperen Sengun)
Draymond Green defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Fred VanVleet defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Rockets turnover
Warriors misses two point jump shot
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
37-29
Draymond Green defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Warriors turnover
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Jimmy Butler III defensive rebound
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Jimmy Butler III misses two point layup
Warriors offensive rebound
Tari Eason misses two point tip layup
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
35-29
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
33-29
Jalen Green defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Warriors personal foul
+1
Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
33-25
+1
Amen Thompson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
33-26
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody)
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Rockets violation
Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Jalen Green, Fred VanVleet, Alperen Sengun)
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Kevon Looney)
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets 60 second timeout
Instant replay
Rockets personal foul
Fred VanVleet turnover
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Warriors offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Kevon Looney)
Rockets personal foul
+1
Kevon Looney makes regular free throw 1 of 2
33-24
Kevon Looney misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Kevon Looney)
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Kevon Looney)
Rockets turnover
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
32-24
Stephen Curry defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Jabari Smith Jr. offensive rebound
Warriors personal foul
Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Steven Adams, Tari Eason, Dillon Brooks, Fred VanVleet)
Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Steven Adams, Tari Eason, Dillon Brooks, Fred VanVleet)
Warriors lineup change (Buddy Hield, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Kevon Looney)
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
30-24
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
27-24
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
27-21
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
25-21
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Stephen Curry defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
25-19
Jimmy Butler III defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Warriors personal foul
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
23-19
Instant replay
End of 1st Quarter.
Rockets lineup change (Steven Adams, Jabari Smith Jr., Dillon Brooks, Fred VanVleet, Alperen Sengun)
Warriors lineup change (Quinten Post, Draymond Green, Buddy Hield, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III)
Kevon Looney defensive rebound
+3
Rockets makes three point jump shot
20-22
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Jabari Smith Jr. offensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Kevon Looney offensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Rockets turnover
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Buddy Hield, Stephen Curry, Kevon Looney)
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
20-19
Moses Moody defensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
17-19
Warriors personal foul
Jalen Green misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Steven Adams defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Kevon Looney defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Warriors defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Tari Eason defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
17-17
Warriors 60 second timeout
Warriors violation
Warriors lineup change (Buddy Hield, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Kevon Looney)
Rockets lineup change (Steven Adams, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr., Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun)
Warriors turnover
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
17-15
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets personal foul
Rockets 60 second timeout
Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Steven Adams, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr., Fred VanVleet)
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Jonathan Kuminga, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler III, Kevon Looney)
Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Steven Adams, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr., Fred VanVleet)
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Jonathan Kuminga, Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Kevon Looney)
Jimmy Butler III misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Warriors offensive rebound
+1
Jimmy Butler III makes regular free throw 2 of 2
17-13
Stephen Curry defensive rebound
Rockets misses three point jump shot
Warriors turnover
Stephen Curry defensive rebound
Dillon Brooks offensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
16-13
Rockets turnover
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Draymond Green defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Dillon Brooks defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
13-13
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Jimmy Butler III defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Steven Adams defensive rebound
Jonathan Kuminga offensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Draymond Green defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Amen Thompson defensive rebound
Warriors personal foul
+1
Fred VanVleet makes regular free throw 1 of 1
13-10
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Jonathan Kuminga, Draymond Green, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III)
Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Steven Adams, Dillon Brooks, Fred VanVleet, Alperen Sengun)
Warriors misses two point jump shot
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
13-10
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
13-8
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
10-8
Jalen Green defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
10-6
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Warriors turnover
Draymond Green defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
10-4
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
8-4
Warriors personal foul
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
8-2
+2
Rockets makes two point jump shot
5-2
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
5-0
Stephen Curry defensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
2-0
Rockets turnover
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
Rockets misses two point jump shot
Warriors lineup change (Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Buddy Hield, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III)
Rockets lineup change (Amen Thompson, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Fred VanVleet, Alperen Sengun)
(Jalen Green gains possession)
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | 32 | T. Jackson-Davis | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| F | 0 | J. Kuminga | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| C | 21 | Q. Post | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| G | 61 | P. Spencer | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| F | 15 | G. Santos | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | 9 | D. Brooks | 8 | 2 | 1 |
| F | 1 | A. Thompson | 24 | 9 | 3 |
| C | 28 | A. Sengun | 21 | 14 | 5 |
| G | 4 | J. Green | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| G | 5 | F. VanVleet | 17 | 7 | 3 |
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Warriors vs. Rockets: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Warriors vs. Rockets
- Date: Sunday, May 4, 2025
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- Venue: Toyota Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Rockets favored at -2.5
- Total (Over/Under): 206
- Moneyline Odds: Warriors +120, Rockets -130
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Warriors: 40%
- Rockets: 60%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Warriors 102-105 Rockets.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Warriors a win probability of 40%, while the Rockets have a win probability of 60%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Rockets are more likely to beat the Warriors in the NBA game at Toyota Center on Monday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Warriors vs. Rockets predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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