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NY City vs. Philadelphia Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our prediction and analysis for NY City vs. Philadelphia at the MLS on March 1, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for major markets.
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FINAL
MLS
FINAL
MLS
2
1
Mar 1, 9:30PM Subaru Park
Mar 1, 9:30PM Subaru Park
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets Score Summary
I. Vassilev (pen.) (89')
O. Makhanya (90')
H. Wolf (36')
T. Gray (90')
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
0.0%
Draw
0.0%
100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
Substitution for New York City: Talles Magno replaces N. Mercau
O. Makhanya (Philadelphia Union) sent off for a second yellow card
Substitution for Philadelphia Union: G. Martinez replaces I. Vassilev
J. Sery Larsen (Philadelphia Union) cautioned
Goal scored for New York City by T. Gray
2-1
Goal scored for Philadelphia Union by I. Vassilev (pen.)
1-1
Substitution for New York City: D. Baiera replaces H. Wolf
Substitution for Philadelphia Union: C. Sullivan replaces M. Iloski
Substitution for Philadelphia Union: S. Olivas replaces B. Damiani
Substitution for New York City: K. Trewin replaces A. O'Neill
Substitution for New York City: S. Reid replaces M. Moralez
Substitution for Philadelphia Union: B. Bender replaces F. Westfield
Substitution for Philadelphia Union: S. Korzeniowski replaces A. Anello
A. O'Neill (New York City) cautioned
Goal scored for New York City by H. Wolf
1-0
O. Makhanya (Philadelphia Union) cautioned
T. Gray (New York City) cautioned
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NY City vs. Philadelphia: Detailed breakdown
Dimers' NY City vs. Philadelphia prediction is generated using an international soccer rating framework applied consistently across all MLS matches. Each output is built on proprietary features and maintained throughout the tournament to ensure reliable and current projections.
Match overview
- Teams: NY City vs. Philadelphia
- Date: Sunday, March 1, 2026
- Time: 4:30 PM ET
- Venue: Subaru Park
- Tournament: MLS
Current betting odds
- Moneyline: NY City +240, Philadelphia +120, draw +235
- Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-102/-118)
Dimers' win probabilities
- NY City: 22.9%
- Philadelphia: 53.4%
- Draw: 23.7%
These probabilities are generated using a rating system designed specifically for international soccer. The model evaluates past performance, opponent strength, expected player involvement, and other underlying signals to estimate each team's chance of winning, drawing, or losing.
Projected score
The most likely correct score for this matchup is NY City 1-1 Philadelphia, with a probability of 11%.
Correct score projections reflect expected scoring distributions. In some cases, a team can carry a higher overall win probability while the most likely specific outcome is a narrow result or a draw.
Our prediction: Who wins?
NY City is the most likely winner of this matchup with a 22.9% probability, while Philadelphia sits at 53.4%, with the draw at 23.7%.
For full access to MLS predictions, probabilities, and tools such as MLS best bets across every match, Dimers Pro unlocks the complete experience.
Summary
Dimers' NY City vs. Philadelphia prediction is grounded in repeatable logic—not headlines or hunches. This matchup-level analysis also feeds into our broader tournament coverage, including who will win the MLS and the latest MLS news.
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