NY City vs. Philadelphia Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the NY City vs. Philadelphia MLS match on March 1, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
Get 6 months of Dimers Pro for just $99.99
FINAL
MLS
Add this game to My Favorites
FINAL
Add this game to My Favorites
MLS sport icon
MLS
NY City
2
1
Subaru Park
Philadelphia
Subaru Park
PhiladelphiaPHI
Score Summary
NY CityNYC
I. Vassilev (pen.) (89')
Soccer ball icon
O. Makhanya (90')
Red Card icon
H. Wolf (36')
Soccer ball icon
T. Gray (90')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Philadelphia
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • NY City
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for New York City: Talles Magno replaces N. Mercau
  2. 90'
    Red Card
    O. Makhanya (Philadelphia Union) sent off for a second yellow card
  3. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Philadelphia Union: G. Martinez replaces I. Vassilev
  4. 90'
    Yellow Card
    J. Sery Larsen (Philadelphia Union) cautioned
  5. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for New York City by T. Gray
    2-1
  6. 89'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Philadelphia Union by I. Vassilev (pen.)
    1-1
  7. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for New York City: D. Baiera replaces H. Wolf
  8. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Philadelphia Union: C. Sullivan replaces M. Iloski
  9. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Philadelphia Union: S. Olivas replaces B. Damiani
  10. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for New York City: K. Trewin replaces A. O'Neill
  11. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for New York City: S. Reid replaces M. Moralez
  12. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Philadelphia Union: B. Bender replaces F. Westfield
  13. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Philadelphia Union: S. Korzeniowski replaces A. Anello
  14. 39'
    Yellow Card
    A. O'Neill (New York City) cautioned
  15. 36'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for New York City by H. Wolf
    1-0
  16. 23'
    Yellow Card
    O. Makhanya (Philadelphia Union) cautioned
  17. 20'
    Yellow Card
    T. Gray (New York City) cautioned

NY City vs. Philadelphia: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: NY City vs. Philadelphia
  • Date: Sunday, March 1, 2026
  • Time: 4:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Subaru Park

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: NY City +240, Philadelphia +120, draw +235
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-102/-118)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • NY City: 22.9%
  • Philadelphia: 53.4%
  • Draw: 23.7%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' MLS data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: NY City 1-1 Philadelphia (11.2%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

Want Dimers' best bets for this matchup?

The most probable outcome isn't always the wisest wager.

The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

Join Dimers Pro to unlock complete betting analysis for this matchup across every major market, including:

  • Today's best bets
  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

Unlock today's best bets for this match with Dimers Pro—cancel anytime.

Who will win NY City vs. Philadelphia? Prediction & correct score

Philadelphia is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 53.4%.

The most likely correct score is NY City 1-1 Philadelphia.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Get Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

Responsible gambling

Dimers' predictions and betting insights are designed to help inform your betting decisions. If you're betting on NY City vs. Philadelphia, always gamble responsibly and within your means. For support, you can visit our responsible gambling resources.