Toluca vs. Club America Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Toluca vs. Club America Liga MX match on April 18, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.
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LIGA MX
Toluca
1
2
Apr 18, 11:10 PM ET Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes
Club America
Apr 18, 11:10 PM ET Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes
Club AmericaAME
Score Summary
TolucaTOL
B. Rodriguez (44')
Soccer ball icon
B. Rodriguez (50')
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M. Vazquez (o.g.) (53')
Soccer ball icon
Helinho (90')
Red Card icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Club America
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Toluca
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
Red Card
Helinho (Toluca) sent off with a straight red card
89'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: F. Rossi replaces E. del Villar
89'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: P. Perez replaces A. Vega
87'
Substitution
Substitution for Club America: J. Zuniga replaces B. Rodriguez
86'
Substitution
Substitution for Club America: T. N. Espinosa Dovat replaces C. Borja
80'
Substitution
Substitution for Club America: A. Cervantes replaces Raphael Veiga
73'
Yellow Card
J. Gallardo (Toluca) cautioned
63'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: M. Ruiz replaces J. Angulo
57'
Substitution
Substitution for Club America: R. Juarez replaces M. Vazquez
57'
Substitution
Substitution for Club America: K. Alvarez replaces I. Violante
53'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Toluca by M. Vazquez (o.g.)
1-2
52'
Yellow Card
I. Violante (Club America) cautioned
50'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Club America by B. Rodriguez, assisted by A. Zendejas
0-2
46'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: Helinho replaces D. Barbosa
44'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Club America by B. Rodriguez, assisted by I. Violante
0-1
19'
Yellow Card
M. Vazquez (Club America) cautioned

Toluca vs. Club America: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Toluca vs. Club America
  • Date: Saturday, April 18, 2026
  • Time: 11:10 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Toluca +155, Club America +190, draw +240
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-105/-115)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Toluca: 31.9%
  • Club America: 43.4%
  • Draw: 24.7%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Toluca 1-1 Club America (11.6%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Toluca vs. Club America? Prediction & correct score

Club America is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 43.4%.

The most likely correct score is Toluca 1-1 Club America.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

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