Necaxa vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Necaxa vs. Toluca Liga MX game on July 12, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.

Unlock all picks and predictions for this game

FINAL

LIGA MX

FINAL

LIGA MX

Necaxa

Jul 13, 1AM Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca de Lerdo)

Toluca

Jul 13, 1AM Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca de Lerdo)

In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play

Game PredictionsPre-Game

Best Bets

TolucaTOL

Score Summary

NecaxaNEC

M. Ruiz (27')

J. Angulo (41')

Helinho (90')

P. Perez (21')

Live Probabilities

Moneyline

Over / Under

Win %

TOL

100.0%

Draw

0.0%

NEC

0.0%

Win Probability

Match Timeline

90'

Goal scored for Toluca by Helinho

1-3

89'

Substitution for Toluca: Helinho replaces A. Vega

88'

D. De Buen (Necaxa) cautioned

83'

Substitution for Necaxa: A. Andrade replaces I. Rodriguez

83'

Substitution for Necaxa: T. Badaloni replaces C. Calderon

75'

Substitution for Toluca: N. Castro replaces J. Angulo

71'

Substitution for Necaxa: R. Sanchez replaces R. Monreal

66'

Substitution for Toluca: Bruno Mendez replaces J. P. Dominguez Chonteco

66'

Substitution for Toluca: R. Morales replaces Paulinho

60'

Substitution for Necaxa: F. Rossano replaces P. Perez

60'

Substitution for Necaxa: J. Rojas replaces Jesus Alcantar

45'

M. Ruiz (Toluca) cautioned

41'

Goal scored for Toluca by J. Angulo, assisted by M. Ruiz

1-2

27'

Goal scored for Toluca by M. Ruiz, assisted by A. Vega

1-1

21'

Goal scored for Necaxa by P. Perez, assisted by A. Palavecino

1-0

18'

J. Gallardo (Toluca) cautioned

I. Rodriguez (Necaxa) cautioned

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Necaxa vs. Toluca: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

Teams: Necaxa vs. Toluca
Date: Saturday, July 12, 2025
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Estadio Nemesio Díez

Current Betting Odds

Moneyline Odds: Necaxa +480, Toluca -190, Draw +340
Total (Over/Under): 2.5 (-180/+130)

Dimers' Win Probabilities

Necaxa: 16.5%
Toluca: 64.9%
Draw: 18.7%

Dimers.com's predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our most likely correct score for this Liga MX game is Necaxa 1-2 Toluca, which has a correct score probability of 10%.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations. In some cases, a team can have a higher overall probability of winning, yet the most likely specific outcome (correct score) is a draw.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives Toluca a win probability of 64.9%, while Necaxa has a win probability of 16.5%. The chance of a draw is 18.7%.

Summary

Our Necaxa vs. Toluca predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert Liga MX predictions and the best Liga MX bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes Liga MX futures, Liga MX odds, and the latest Liga MX news.