Toluca vs. Santos Laguna Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Toluca vs. Santos Laguna Liga MX game on July 16, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.

Unlock all picks and predictions for this game

FINAL

LIGA MX

FINAL

LIGA MX

Toluca

Jul 17, 3:05AM Estadio Corona (Torreón)

Santos Laguna

Jul 17, 3:05AM Estadio Corona (Torreón)

In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play

Game PredictionsPre-Game

Best Bets

Santos LagunaSAN

Score Summary

TolucaTOL

R. Sordo (14')

J. A. Ocejo Zazueta (27')

J. A. Ocejo Zazueta (45')

Helinho (43')

Helinho (48')

R. Morales (63')

R. Morales (90')

Live Probabilities

Moneyline

Over / Under

Win %

SAN

0.0%

Draw

0.0%

TOL

100.0%

Win Probability

Match Timeline

90'

Goal scored for Toluca by R. Morales, assisted by J. P. Dominguez Chonteco

4-2

88'

Substitution for Toluca: L. Garcia replaces H. Gonzalez

88'

L. Garcia (Toluca) cautioned

77'

Substitution for Toluca: A. Vega replaces Helinho

68'

Substitution for Santos Laguna: J. Carrillo replaces E. Echeverria

68'

Substitution for Santos Laguna: D. Medina replaces J. Abella

63'

Goal scored for Toluca by R. Morales, assisted by Helinho

3-2

62'

E. Echeverria (Santos Laguna) cautioned

57'

Substitution for Santos Laguna: C. Dajome replaces R. Sordo

54'

J. Abella (Santos Laguna) cautioned

48'

Goal scored for Toluca by Helinho, assisted by O. Virgen

2-2

46'

Substitution for Toluca: J. P. Dominguez Chonteco replaces V. Arteaga

46'

Substitution for Toluca: O. Virgen replaces F. Pereira

46'

Substitution for Toluca: D. Barbosa replaces S. Aceves

46'

Substitution for Santos Laguna: E. Gutierrez replaces F. Villalba

46'

Substitution for Santos Laguna: C. Lozano replaces K. Balanta

45'

J. A. Ocejo Zazueta (Santos Laguna) sent off for a second yellow card

43'

Goal scored for Toluca by Helinho, assisted by N. Castro

1-2

38'

V. Arteaga (Toluca) cautioned

35'

J. A. Ocejo Zazueta (Santos Laguna) cautioned

30'

S. Aceves (Toluca) cautioned

27'

Goal scored for Santos Laguna by J. A. Ocejo Zazueta

0-2

20'

F. Pereira (Toluca) cautioned

14'

Goal scored for Santos Laguna by R. Sordo

0-1

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Toluca vs. Santos Laguna: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

Teams: Toluca vs. Santos Laguna
Date: Wednesday, July 16, 2025
Time: 11:05 PM ET
Venue: Estadio Corona

Current Betting Odds

Moneyline Odds: Toluca +105, Santos Laguna +260, Draw +275
Total (Over/Under): 2.5 (-160/+116)

Dimers' Win Probabilities

Toluca: 65.0%
Santos Laguna: 15.3%
Draw: 19.7%

Dimers.com's predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our most likely correct score for this Liga MX game is Toluca 2-0 Santos Laguna, which has a correct score probability of 11%.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations. In some cases, a team can have a higher overall probability of winning, yet the most likely specific outcome (correct score) is a draw.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives Santos Laguna a win probability of 15.3%, while Toluca has a win probability of 65.0%. The chance of a draw is 19.7%.

Summary

Our Toluca vs. Santos Laguna predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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For further insights, explore our expert Liga MX predictions and the best Liga MX bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes Liga MX futures, Liga MX odds, and the latest Liga MX news.