Pachuca vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Pachuca vs. Toluca Liga MX match on October 26, 2025 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.

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FINAL

LIGA MX

FINAL

LIGA MX

Pachuca

Oct 26, 9:00 PM ET

Toluca

Oct 26, 9:00 PM ET

TolucaTOL

Score Summary

PachucaPAC

J. Gallardo (10')

Paulinho (25')

E. Valencia (45')

E. Valencia (pen.) (55')

A. Bautista (76')

Live Probabilities

Moneyline

Over / Under

Win %

Toluca
0.0%
Draw
100.0%
Pachuca
0.0%

Win Probability

Match Timeline

90'

C. Moreno (Pachuca) cautioned

85'

C. Sanchez (Pachuca) cautioned

83'

Substitution for Pachuca: J. Cadiz replaces E. Valencia

82'

Substitution for Toluca: H. Herrera replaces F. Pereira

76'

A. Bautista (Pachuca) sent off with a straight red card

75'

Substitution for Toluca: R. Morales replaces A. Vega

72'

Substitution for Pachuca: I. Luna replaces G. Togni

66'

Substitution for Toluca: E. del Villar replaces N. Castro

58'

Substitution for Pachuca: C. Sanchez replaces W. Carvalho

58'

S. D. Barreto (Pachuca) cautioned

58'

A. Vega (Toluca) cautioned

57'

Paulinho (Toluca) cautioned

55'

Goal scored for Pachuca by E. Valencia (pen.)

2-2

48'

A. Bautista (Pachuca) cautioned

45'

Goal scored for Pachuca by E. Valencia, assisted by V. Guzman

1-2

28'

J. Gallardo (Toluca) cautioned

25'

Goal scored for Toluca by Paulinho, assisted by A. Vega

0-2

10'

Goal scored for Toluca by J. Gallardo, assisted by J. Angulo

0-1

Pachuca vs. Toluca: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

Teams: Pachuca vs. Toluca
Date: Sunday, October 26, 2025
Time: 9:00 PM ET

Current betting odds

Moneyline: Pachuca +460, Toluca -190, draw +350

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

Pachuca: 17.8%
Toluca: 62.8%
Draw: 19.4%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Pachuca 1-2 Toluca (9.7%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Who will win Pachuca vs. Toluca? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 62.8%.

The most likely correct score is Pachuca 1-2 Toluca.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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