Queretaro vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Queretaro vs. Toluca Liga MX match on October 18, 2025 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.
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LIGA MX
Queretaro
0
4
Oct 18, 7:00 PM ET
Toluca
Oct 18, 7:00 PM ET
TolucaTOL
Score Summary
QueretaroQUT
N. Castro (15')
Soccer ball icon
Paulinho (22')
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A. Vega (pen.) (30')
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J. Angulo (66')
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Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Toluca
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Queretaro
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
83'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: A. Briseno replaces N. Castro
74'
Substitution
Substitution for Queretaro: F. Venegas replaces J. Perlaza
72'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: R. Morales replaces Paulinho
67'
Substitution
Substitution for Queretaro: P. Barrera replaces L. Rodriguez
67'
Substitution
Substitution for Queretaro: C. Garcia replaces R. Bogarin
66'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Toluca by J. Angulo, assisted by Paulinho
0-4
62'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: O. Virgen replaces A. Vega
62'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: H. Herrera replaces M. Ruiz
46'
Substitution
Substitution for Queretaro: M. A. Carcelen Carabali replaces E. Armenta
46'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: A. Alvarez replaces J. Gallardo
34'
Yellow Card
A. Vega (Toluca) cautioned
32'
Substitution
Substitution for Queretaro: Jhojan Julio replaces J. Gomez
30'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Toluca by A. Vega (pen.)
0-3
22'
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Goal scored for Toluca by Paulinho, assisted by J. Angulo
0-2
15'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Toluca by N. Castro
0-1

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Queretaro vs. Toluca: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Queretaro vs. Toluca
  • Date: Saturday, October 18, 2025
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Queretaro +1400, Toluca -475, draw +650

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Queretaro: 7.8%
  • Toluca: 78.6%
  • Draw: 13.6%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Queretaro 0-2 Toluca (11.4%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

Want Dimers' best bets for this matchup?

The most probable outcome isn't always the wisest wager.

The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

Join Dimers Pro to unlock complete betting analysis for this matchup across every major market, including:

  • Today's best bets
  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Queretaro vs. Toluca? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 78.6%.

The most likely correct score is Queretaro 0-2 Toluca.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

Responsible gambling

Dimers' predictions and betting insights are designed to help inform your betting decisions. If you're betting on Queretaro vs. Toluca, always gamble responsibly and within your means. For support, you can visit our responsible gambling resources.