Toluca vs. Guadalajara Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Toluca vs. Guadalajara Liga MX match on September 20, 2025 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.

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FINAL

LIGA MX

FINAL

LIGA MX

Toluca

Sep 20, 9:07 PM ET

Guadalajara

Sep 20, 9:07 PM ET

GuadalajaraGCH

Score Summary

TolucaTOL

F. Gonzalez (50')

Paulinho (21')

J. Gallardo (24')

A. Vega (57')

Bruno Mendez (70')

Live Probabilities

Moneyline

Over / Under

Win %

Guadalajara
0.0%
Draw
0.0%
Toluca
100.0%

Win Probability

Match Timeline

86'

Substitution for Toluca: H. Herrera replaces N. Castro

76'

Substitution for Toluca: R. Morales replaces Paulinho

76'

Substitution for Toluca: A. Briseno replaces A. Vega

76'

Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: G. Sepulveda replaces O. Govea

73'

J. Gallardo (Toluca) cautioned

73'

R. Ledezma (Guadalajara Chivas) cautioned

70'

Bruno Mendez (Toluca) sent off with a straight red card

69'

D. Campillo Del Campo (Guadalajara Chivas) cautioned

68'

Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: R. Ledezma replaces S. Sandoval

67'

Substitution for Toluca: S. Simon replaces D. Barbosa

67'

Substitution for Toluca: J. P. Dominguez Chonteco replaces J. Angulo

57'

Goal scored for Toluca by A. Vega, assisted by N. Castro

3-0

54'

F. Pereira (Toluca) cautioned

54'

Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: M. Gomez replaces E. Alvarez

50'

F. Gonzalez (Guadalajara Chivas) sent off with a straight red card

46'

Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: C. Cowell replaces M. Tapias

46'

Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: Chicharito replaces J. Castillo

42'

L. Garcia (Toluca) cautioned

24'

Goal scored for Toluca by J. Gallardo, assisted by A. Vega

2-0

21'

Goal scored for Toluca by Paulinho

1-0

Toluca vs. Guadalajara: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

Teams: Toluca vs. Guadalajara
Date: Saturday, September 20, 2025
Time: 9:07 PM ET

Current betting odds

Moneyline: Toluca +135, Guadalajara +210, draw +255
Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-140/+114)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

Toluca: 39.7%
Guadalajara: 34.7%
Draw: 25.6%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Toluca 1-1 Guadalajara (12.1%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Who will win Toluca vs. Guadalajara? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 39.7%.

The most likely correct score is Toluca 1-1 Guadalajara.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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