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Toluca vs. Necaxa Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our prediction and analysis for Toluca vs. Necaxa at the Liga MX on February 10, 2024 includes win probabilities and picks for major markets.
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LIGA MX
Toluca
3
:
3
Feb 10, 11PM Estadio Victoria (Aguascalientes)
Necaxa
Feb 10, 11PM Estadio Victoria (Aguascalientes)
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
NecaxaNEC
Score Summary
TolucaTOL
D. Cambindo (27')
Soccer ball icon
B. Garnica (43')
Soccer ball icon
D. Cambindo (90')
Soccer ball icon
J. Meneses (6')
Soccer ball icon
T. Belmonte (69')
Soccer ball icon
E. Unsain (o.g.) (78')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
NEC
0.0%
Draw
100.0%
TOL
0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Necaxa by D. Cambindo, assisted by J. Paradela
3-3
84'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: J. Escobar replaces B. A. Garcia Caprizo
83'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: C. Orrantia replaces E. I. Lopez Rodriguez
82'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: J. Angulo replaces J. Meneses
80'
Substitution
Substitution for Necaxa: B. Samudio replaces M. Mayorga
78'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Toluca by E. Unsain (o.g.)
3-2
73'
Yellow Card
J. Paradela (Necaxa) cautioned
71'
Substitution
Substitution for Necaxa: E. Mendez replaces R. Monreal
69'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Toluca by T. Belmonte, assisted by J. Meneses
2-2
59'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: R. Morales replaces J. P. Dominguez Chonteco
58'
Yellow Card
A. Vega (Toluca) cautioned
52'
Substitution
Substitution for Necaxa: A. Andrade replaces H. Jurado
46'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: A. Vega replaces C. Baeza
43'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Necaxa by B. Garnica, assisted by R. Monreal
1-2
31'
Yellow Card
F. Pereira (Toluca) cautioned
27'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Necaxa by D. Cambindo
1-1
6'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Toluca by J. Meneses, assisted by B. A. Garcia Caprizo
1-0

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Toluca vs. Necaxa: Detailed breakdown

Dimers' Toluca vs. Necaxa prediction is generated using an international soccer rating framework applied consistently across all Liga MX matches. Each output is built on proprietary features and maintained throughout the tournament to ensure reliable and current projections.

Match overview

  • Teams: Toluca vs. Necaxa
  • Date: Saturday, February 10, 2024
  • Time: 6:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio Victoria
  • Tournament: Liga MX

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Toluca +100, Necaxa +260, draw +270
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-144/+112)

Dimers' win probabilities

  • Toluca: 46.8%
  • Necaxa: 28.7%
  • Draw: 24.5%

These probabilities are generated using a rating system designed specifically for international soccer. The model evaluates past performance, opponent strength, expected player involvement, and other underlying signals to estimate each team's chance of winning, drawing, or losing.

Projected score

The most likely correct score for this matchup is Toluca 1-1 Necaxa, with a probability of 12%.

Correct score projections reflect expected scoring distributions. In some cases, a team can carry a higher overall win probability while the most likely specific outcome is a narrow result or a draw.

Our prediction: Who wins?

Toluca is the most likely winner of this matchup with a 46.8% probability, while Necaxa sits at 28.7%, with the draw at 24.5%.

For full access to Liga MX predictions, probabilities, and tools such as Liga MX best bets across every match, Dimers Pro unlocks the complete experience.

Summary

Dimers' Toluca vs. Necaxa prediction is grounded in repeatable logic—not headlines or hunches. This matchup-level analysis also feeds into our broader tournament coverage, including who will win the Liga MX and the latest Liga MX news.

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