Atletico Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Atletico Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano La Liga match on September 24, 2025 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LA LIGA
Rayo Vallecano
2
3
Riyadh Air Metropolitano (Madrid)
Atletico Madrid
Riyadh Air Metropolitano (Madrid)
Atletico MadridATM
Score Summary
Rayo VallecanoRVC
J. Alvarez (15')
Soccer ball icon
J. Alvarez (80')
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J. Alvarez (88')
Soccer ball icon
P. Chavarria (45')
Soccer ball icon
A. Garcia (78')
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Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Atletico Madrid
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Rayo Vallecano
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    P. Ciss (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
  2. 90'
    Yellow Card
    R. Le Normand (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
  3. 90'
    Yellow Card
    A. Ratiu (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
  4. 88'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by J. Alvarez, assisted by G. Simeone
    2-3
  5. 87'
    Yellow Card
    M. Llorente (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
  6. 87'
    Yellow Card
    P. Chavarria (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
  7. 86'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: G. Gumbau replaces I. Palazon
  8. 80'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by J. Alvarez
    2-2
  9. 79'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: P. Diaz replaces U. Lopez
  10. 79'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: M. Pubill replaces C. Gallagher
  11. 79'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: M. Ruggeri replaces A. Griezmann
  12. 78'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Rayo Vallecano by A. Garcia, assisted by I. Palazon
    2-1
  13. 73'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: G. Raspadori replaces J. Galan
  14. 66'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Pacha replaces Alemao
  15. 65'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: A. Garcia replaces F. Perez
  16. 65'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: P. Ciss replaces O. Valentin
  17. 56'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: N. Gonzalez replaces Koke
  18. 56'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: G. Simeone replaces N. Molina
  19. 54'
    Yellow Card
    I. Balliu (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
  20. 51'
    Yellow Card
    Koke (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
  21. 45'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Rayo Vallecano by P. Chavarria, assisted by U. Lopez
    1-1
  22. 15'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by J. Alvarez, assisted by M. Llorente
    0-1

Atletico Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Atletico Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano
  • Date: Wednesday, September 24, 2025
  • Time: 3:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Atletico Madrid -200, Rayo Vallecano +650, draw +340
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-104/-110)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Atletico Madrid: 62.0%
  • Rayo Vallecano: 15.9%
  • Draw: 22.0%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Rayo Vallecano (12.8%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
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Who will win Atletico Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano? Prediction & correct score

Atletico Madrid is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 62.0%.

The most likely correct score is Atletico Madrid 1-0 Rayo Vallecano.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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