Villareal vs. Atletico Madrid Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Villareal vs. Atletico Madrid La Liga match on May 24, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LA LIGA
Atletico Madrid
1
5
Estadio de la Ceramica
Villareal
Estadio de la Ceramica
VillarealVIL
Score Summary
Atletico MadridATM
D. Parejo (pen.) (30')
Soccer ball icon
A. Perez (34')
Soccer ball icon
G. Mikautadze (40')
Soccer ball icon
P. Gueye (45')
Soccer ball icon
A. Perez (54')
Soccer ball icon
M. Pubill (43')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Villareal
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Atletico Madrid
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 89'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Villarreal: C. Macia replaces G. Mikautadze
  2. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Villarreal: L. Costa replaces P. Gueye
  3. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Villarreal: P. Cabanes replaces A. Perez
  4. 67'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Villarreal: S. Cardona replaces A. Pedraza
  5. 66'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Villarreal: A. Diatta replaces D. Parejo
  6. 61'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: J. Bonar replaces A. Lookman
  7. 61'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: J. Morcillo replaces A. Baena
  8. 54'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Villarreal by A. Perez, assisted by N. Pepe
    1-5
  9. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: A. Sorloth replaces G. Simeone
  10. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: A. Puric replaces D. Hancko
  11. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: M. Ruggeri replaces M. Pubill
  12. 45'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Villarreal by P. Gueye, assisted by N. Pepe
    1-4
  13. 43'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by M. Pubill, assisted by A. Griezmann
    1-3
  14. 40'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Villarreal by G. Mikautadze, assisted by A. Perez
    0-3
  15. 34'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Villarreal by A. Perez
    0-2
  16. 30'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Villarreal by D. Parejo (pen.)
    0-1
  17. 27'
    Yellow Card
    G. Simeone (Atl. Madrid) cautioned

Villareal vs. Atletico Madrid: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Villareal vs. Atletico Madrid
  • Date: Sunday, May 24, 2026
  • Time: 3:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio de la Ceramica

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Villareal +150, Atletico Madrid +160, draw +300
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-250/+200)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Villareal: 38.2%
  • Atletico Madrid: 38.6%
  • Draw: 23.1%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Villareal 1-1 Atletico Madrid (10.1%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Villareal vs. Atletico Madrid? Prediction & correct score

Atletico Madrid is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 38.6%.

The most likely correct score is Villareal 1-1 Atletico Madrid.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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Responsible gambling

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