Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao La Liga match on May 23, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LA LIGA
Athletic Bilbao
2
4
Real Madrid
Real MadridRMA
Score Summary
Athletic BilbaoBIL
G. Garcia (12')
Soccer ball icon
J. Bellingham (41')
Soccer ball icon
K. Mbappe (51')
Soccer ball icon
B. Diaz (90')
Soccer ball icon
G. Guruzeta (45')
Soccer ball icon
Izeta (90')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Real Madrid
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Athletic Bilbao
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Real Madrid by B. Diaz, assisted by T. Pitarch
    1-4
  2. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Ath Bilbao by Izeta, assisted by I. Williams
    2-4
  3. 86'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: M. Vesga replaces M. Jauregizar
  4. 84'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: M. Serrano replaces D. Carvajal
  5. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: D. Ceballos replaces J. Bellingham
  6. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: A. Guler replaces G. Garcia
  7. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: B. Diaz replaces F. Mastantuono
  8. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: Izeta replaces G. Guruzeta
  9. 70'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: D. Huijsen replaces D. Alaba
  10. 60'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: I. Lekue replaces I. Ruiz de Galarreta
  11. 60'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: A. Rego replaces U. Gomez
  12. 51'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Real Madrid by K. Mbappe, assisted by A. Carreras
    1-3
  13. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Ath Bilbao: A. Gorosabel replaces Y. Alvarez
  14. 45'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Ath Bilbao by G. Guruzeta, assisted by I. Williams
    1-2
  15. 41'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Real Madrid by J. Bellingham, assisted by T. Pitarch
    0-2
  16. 20'
    Yellow Card
    J. Bellingham (Real Madrid) cautioned
  17. 12'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Real Madrid by G. Garcia, assisted by D. Carvajal
    0-1
  18. 3'
    Yellow Card
    T. Pitarch (Real Madrid) cautioned

Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao
  • Date: Saturday, May 23, 2026
  • Time: 3:00 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Real Madrid -188, Athletic Bilbao +475, draw +380
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-225/+175)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Real Madrid: 61.1%
  • Athletic Bilbao: 18.6%
  • Draw: 20.3%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Real Madrid 2-1 Athletic Bilbao (9.9%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
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Who will win Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao? Prediction & correct score

Real Madrid is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 61.1%.

The most likely correct score is Real Madrid 2-1 Athletic Bilbao.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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