Aston Villa vs. Burnley Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our prediction and analysis for Aston Villa vs. Burnley at the Premier League on October 5, 2025 includes win probabilities and picks for major markets.
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PREMIER LEAGUE
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PREMIER LEAGUE
Burnley
1
2
Oct 5, 1PM Villa Park
Aston Villa
Oct 5, 1PM Villa Park
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
Aston VillaVIL
Score Summary
BurnleyBUR
D. Malen (25')
Soccer ball icon
D. Malen (63')
Soccer ball icon
L. Ugochukwu (78')
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Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
VIL
100.0%
Draw
0.0%
BUR
0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: A. Onana replaces L. Bogarde
90'
Yellow Card
E. Buendia (Aston Villa) cautioned
90'
Yellow Card
E. Martinez (Aston Villa) cautioned
90'
Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: I. Maatsen replaces E. Buendia
90'
Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: J. Worrall replaces M. Esteve
84'
Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: V. Lindelof replaces M. Cash
84'
Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: R. Barkley replaces D. Malen
82'
Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Z. Flemming replaces J. Laurent
78'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Burnley by L. Ugochukwu, assisted by Q. Hartman
1-2
69'
Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: L. Ugochukwu replaces L. Foster
67'
Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: E. Buendia replaces O. Watkins
67'
Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: E. Guessand replaces J. McGinn
63'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Aston Villa by D. Malen, assisted by M. Rogers
0-2
59'
Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: J. Bruun Larsen replaces L. Tchaouna
59'
Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: A. Broja replaces J. Anthony
53'
Yellow Card
L. Digne (Aston Villa) cautioned
25'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Aston Villa by D. Malen, assisted by B. Kamara
0-1
17'
Yellow Card
L. Foster (Burnley) cautioned

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Aston Villa vs. Burnley: Detailed breakdown

Dimers' Aston Villa vs. Burnley prediction is generated using an international soccer rating framework applied consistently across all Premier League matches. Each output is built on proprietary features and maintained throughout the tournament to ensure reliable and current projections.

Match overview

  • Teams: Aston Villa vs. Burnley
  • Date: Sunday, October 5, 2025
  • Time: 9:00 AM ET
  • Venue: Villa Park
  • Tournament: Premier League

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Aston Villa -180, Burnley +550, draw +310
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-105/-115)

Dimers' win probabilities

  • Aston Villa: 62.5%
  • Burnley: 16.5%
  • Draw: 21.1%

These probabilities are generated using a rating system designed specifically for international soccer. The model evaluates past performance, opponent strength, expected player involvement, and other underlying signals to estimate each team's chance of winning, drawing, or losing.

Projected score

The most likely correct score for this matchup is Aston Villa 1-0 Burnley, with a probability of 11%.

Correct score projections reflect expected scoring distributions. In some cases, a team can carry a higher overall win probability while the most likely specific outcome is a narrow result or a draw.

Our prediction: Who wins?

Aston Villa is the most likely winner of this matchup with a 62.5% probability, while Burnley sits at 16.5%, with the draw at 21.1%.

For full access to Premier League predictions, probabilities, and tools such as Premier League best bets across every match, Dimers Pro unlocks the complete experience.

Summary

Dimers' Aston Villa vs. Burnley prediction is grounded in repeatable logic—not headlines or hunches. This matchup-level analysis also feeds into our broader tournament coverage, including who will win the Premier League and the latest Premier League news.

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