Aston Villa vs. Burnley Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Aston Villa vs. Burnley Premier League match on October 5, 2025 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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Burnley
1
2
Villa Park
Aston Villa
Villa Park
Aston VillaVIL
Score Summary
BurnleyBUR
D. Malen (25')
Soccer ball icon
D. Malen (63')
Soccer ball icon
L. Ugochukwu (78')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Aston Villa
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Burnley
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: A. Onana replaces L. Bogarde
  2. 90'
    Yellow Card
    E. Buendia (Aston Villa) cautioned
  3. 90'
    Yellow Card
    E. Martinez (Aston Villa) cautioned
  4. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: I. Maatsen replaces E. Buendia
  5. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: J. Worrall replaces M. Esteve
  6. 84'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: V. Lindelof replaces M. Cash
  7. 84'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: R. Barkley replaces D. Malen
  8. 82'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: Z. Flemming replaces J. Laurent
  9. 78'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Burnley by L. Ugochukwu, assisted by Q. Hartman
    1-2
  10. 69'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: L. Ugochukwu replaces L. Foster
  11. 67'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: E. Buendia replaces O. Watkins
  12. 67'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: E. Guessand replaces J. McGinn
  13. 63'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Aston Villa by D. Malen, assisted by M. Rogers
    0-2
  14. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: J. Bruun Larsen replaces L. Tchaouna
  15. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Burnley: A. Broja replaces J. Anthony
  16. 53'
    Yellow Card
    L. Digne (Aston Villa) cautioned
  17. 25'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Aston Villa by D. Malen, assisted by B. Kamara
    0-1
  18. 17'
    Yellow Card
    L. Foster (Burnley) cautioned

Aston Villa vs. Burnley: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Aston Villa vs. Burnley
  • Date: Sunday, October 5, 2025
  • Time: 9:00 AM ET
  • Venue: Villa Park

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Aston Villa -180, Burnley +550, draw +310
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-105/-115)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Aston Villa: 62.5%
  • Burnley: 16.5%
  • Draw: 21.1%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Premier League data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Aston Villa 1-0 Burnley (11.1%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Aston Villa vs. Burnley? Prediction & correct score

Aston Villa is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 62.5%.

The most likely correct score is Aston Villa 1-0 Burnley.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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Responsible gambling

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