Chelsea vs. Liverpool Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Chelsea vs. Liverpool Premier League match on October 4, 2025 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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PREMIER LEAGUE
Liverpool
1
2
Stamford Bridge
Chelsea
Stamford Bridge
ChelseaCFC
Score Summary
LiverpoolLFC
M. Caicedo (14')
Soccer ball icon
M. Cucurella (90')
Soccer ball icon
C. Gakpo (63')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Chelsea
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Liverpool
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Chelsea by M. Cucurella
    1-2
  2. 90'
    Yellow Card
    E. Maresca (Chelsea) cautioned
  3. 86'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Liverpool: W. Endo replaces A. Mac Allister
  4. 82'
    Yellow Card
    A. Slot (Liverpool) cautioned
  5. 79'
    Yellow Card
    D. Szoboszlai (Liverpool) cautioned
  6. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chelsea: M. Guiu replaces Joao Pedro
  7. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chelsea: J. Gittens replaces A. Garnacho
  8. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chelsea: replaces P. Neto
  9. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Liverpool: H. Ekitike replaces A. Isak
  10. 68'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chelsea: J. Hato replaces J. Acheampong
  11. 63'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Liverpool by C. Gakpo, assisted by A. Isak
    1-1
  12. 56'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Liverpool: C. Jones replaces I. Konate
  13. 55'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Chelsea: R. Lavia replaces B. Badiashile
  14. 55'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Liverpool: A. Robertson replaces M. Kerkez
  15. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Liverpool: F. Wirtz replaces C. Bradley
  16. 40'
    Yellow Card
    E. Maresca (Chelsea) cautioned
  17. 34'
    Yellow Card
    C. Bradley (Liverpool) cautioned
  18. 14'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Chelsea by M. Caicedo, assisted by M. Gusto
    0-1

Chelsea vs. Liverpool: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Chelsea vs. Liverpool
  • Date: Saturday, October 4, 2025
  • Time: 12:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Stamford Bridge

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Chelsea +190, Liverpool +135, draw +265
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-170/+142)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Chelsea: 31.5%
  • Liverpool: 46.1%
  • Draw: 22.4%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Premier League data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Chelsea 1-1 Liverpool (9.7%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Chelsea vs. Liverpool? Prediction & correct score

Liverpool is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 46.1%.

The most likely correct score is Chelsea 1-1 Liverpool.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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Responsible gambling

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