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Puebla vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our prediction and analysis for Puebla vs. Toluca at the Liga MX on October 31, 2023 includes win probabilities and picks for major markets.
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LIGA MX
Puebla
1
0
Nov 1, 1AM Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca de Lerdo)
Toluca
Nov 1, 1AM Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca de Lerdo)
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
TolucaTOL
Score Summary
PueblaPBL
G. Martinez (pen.) (78')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
TOL
0.0%
Draw
0.0%
PBL
100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
89'
Substitution
Substitution for Puebla: E. Orona replaces G. Ferrareis
89'
Yellow Card
C. Baltazar (Puebla) cautioned
86'
Substitution
Substitution for Puebla: L. Garcia replaces D. Alvarez
85'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: Pedro Raul replaces T. Belmonte
79'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: J. Angulo replaces M. Ruiz
79'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: C. Orrantia replaces B. A. Garcia Caprizo
78'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Puebla by G. Martinez (pen.)
1-0
76'
Yellow Card
M. Ruiz (Toluca) cautioned
75'
Yellow Card
C. Baeza (Toluca) cautioned
66'
Substitution
Substitution for Puebla: C. Baltazar replaces K. Velasco
66'
Substitution
Substitution for Puebla: M. Sansores replaces M. Barragan
55'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: E. I. Lopez Rodriguez replaces R. Morales
55'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: C. Baeza replaces M. Araujo
45'
Yellow Card
D. De Buen (Puebla) cautioned
31'
Yellow Card
M. Araujo (Toluca) cautioned

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Puebla vs. Toluca: Detailed breakdown

Dimers' Puebla vs. Toluca prediction is generated using an international soccer rating framework applied consistently across all Liga MX matches. Each output is built on proprietary features and maintained throughout the tournament to ensure reliable and current projections.

Match overview

  • Teams: Puebla vs. Toluca
  • Date: Tuesday, October 31, 2023
  • Time: 9:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio Nemesio Díez
  • Tournament: Liga MX

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Puebla +500, Toluca -205, draw +390

Dimers' win probabilities

  • Puebla: 17.1%
  • Toluca: 64.1%
  • Draw: 18.8%

These probabilities are generated using a rating system designed specifically for international soccer. The model evaluates past performance, opponent strength, expected player involvement, and other underlying signals to estimate each team's chance of winning, drawing, or losing.

Projected score

The most likely correct score for this matchup is Puebla 1-2 Toluca, with a probability of 10%.

Correct score projections reflect expected scoring distributions. In some cases, a team can carry a higher overall win probability while the most likely specific outcome is a narrow result or a draw.

Our prediction: Who wins?

Puebla is the most likely winner of this matchup with a 17.1% probability, while Toluca sits at 64.1%, with the draw at 18.8%.

For full access to Liga MX predictions, probabilities, and tools such as Liga MX best bets across every match, Dimers Pro unlocks the complete experience.

Summary

Dimers' Puebla vs. Toluca prediction is grounded in repeatable logic—not headlines or hunches. This matchup-level analysis also feeds into our broader tournament coverage, including who will win the Liga MX and the latest Liga MX news.

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